NFL Handicapping and NFL Handicappers
Some argue that NFL handicapping is a science learned over time, and you can bet the most experienced professional NFL handicappers think that statement is 100 percent true. That’s because they take handicapping football games very seriously and believe in themselves to produce winning NFL picks and profitable results for their clients on a consistent basis. Winning NFL picks is no easy chore, especially since handicappers are trying to beat oddsmakers who follow the sport more closely than any other.
The best NFL handicappers do not necessarily have to watch every play of every game in order to be successful. They need to have confidence in themselves and their own football betting systems, which could be as simple as following the same NFL handicapping trends from week to week or as complex as devising their own Power Ratings to compare against the numbers released by oddsmakers.
No matter how handicappers make their NFL picks, their results should be monitored closely by potential clients before making a purchase. Some NFL handicappers claim to win 70 or 80 percent or their picks, which is just not realistic over the long term. Much like the teams themselves, an NFL handicapper can go on a short term hot streak or cold spell, and that run can end at any moment.
Most NFL handicappers post their results for the public to see in hopes of gaining more clients. Of course that could work against them if they happen to go on a losing streak, but full transparency is one of the most important characteristics of an NFL handicapping website. If you are interested in buying NFL picks from a website, make sure they post the results for all of their handicappers, so that you know they are not hiding anything. Many websites offer free NFL picks that you can follow as a trial before you decide to buy from a certain NFL handicapper. Handicapping style tends to vary from handicapper to handicapper, and you might like one over another due to the way he or she presents information to you.
For example, good NFL handicappers will break down games for you with detailed analysis describing why they like a specific side or total. They will use a combination of key trends, injuries, weather and coaching/player matchups to present their case to you and determine who has the edge. Some can get their point across in a few sentences while others might have so much info they want to share that you really feel like you are getting your money’s worth. The old cliché “you get what you pay for” could not be more true when discussing NFL handicappers. If a handicapper gives you a lot of quality info, at least you will feel like he or she did the necessary homework regardless of whether a pick wins or loses.
However, the bottom line for every NFL handicapper is picking winners. Some NFL handicappers do not need analysis and just release “steam plays” based on betting tips they get from different sources. For these types of handicappers, there is often a high volume of picks each day, and they can be hit or miss depending on how good the tips end up being. If an NFL handicapper has a source that says a star player is more hurt than the injury report suggests, and it proves to be true, then you know he or she is reliable. But if the info is wrong, it could cost you much more than just buying a losing pick.
Another key consideration when selecting an NFL handicapper is finding out whether or not he or she actually bets on games. Many will use that as a selling point in their promotional copy, saying they have personally bet money on a specific side or total, using crazy slogans like “my biggest bet of the year” to try to lure you into buying their NFL picks. NFL handicappers do not have to live in Las Vegas, although many say they do when they do not. Some have NFL online betting accounts and use real odds from those sportsbooks when they make their picks, so you know exactly where you can get the same numbers. It can be very difficult to verify this info, but the most trustworthy NFL handicappers will be honest with you and let you know where they place their bets if you ask them.
Realistically, successful NFL handicappers will hit 60 percent of their picks or better over the course of a season. Keep in mind, winning 52 percent of your NFL picks is the break-even point with the usual betting line of -110 for sides, so any number higher than that is considered turning a profit. In the biggest NFL handicapping contest in the world – the SuperContest in Vegas – the winner usually needs to win 65 to 70 percent after picking five sides each week during the regular season. Last year, the winner of the SuperContest picked at a 67-percent clip to claim a record $557,850 grand prize.
While it’s impossible to be that good every year overall, some handicappers have a niche for winning certain types of NFL picks at a consistently high percentage, such as totals or underdogs. Handicapping underdogs who have a chance to win straight-up on the moneyline can be one of the most profitable NFL betting systems to follow. NFL handicappers who care the most about their clients want you to make the most money possible and will work hard to find ways for bettors to profit along with them.
After you decide to buy NFL picks from a handicapper, be careful with your own money management and do not bet more than you can afford to lose. Have a bankroll in mind every week and include pick purchases in the amount just like any other budget. You can learn a lot from NFL handicappers, especially those who bet their own picks, and the best ones will share their experiences to help you win.