NFL Picks and NFL Predictions

At this time of the year, everybody seems to have their own NFL picks and predictions for the upcoming football season. Many NFL betting experts create their own Power Ratings, taking an analytical approach to handicapping each team and projecting results accordingly. NFL Power Ratings typically consist of a combination of numbers ranking several different factors, including offense, defense, special teams, coaching, injuries and home-field advantage. These Power Ratings may or may not include what oddsmakers think of every NFL team, sometimes incorporating NFL betting odds like Win Totals into the equation. However, it is more common for NFL bettors to compare their own Power Ratings to what the oddsmakers produce in terms of betting odds to determine where they believe they have an edge.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

The sharpest NFL bettors will beat sportsbooks at their own game, making better numbers that are more accurate and ultimately lead to cashing more winners than losers. With NFL Win Totals, you can generally find out where the money is going just by looking at the juice “over” or “under” the number unless the sportsbook’s opener favored one or the other from the start. Many of the top NFL teams open with the “over” favored because sportsbooks know the betting public will automatically side with winning more than less.

It is important though to differentiate between “sharp” NFL bettors and the majority of the betting public, often referred to as “squares” because they tend to go more with the flow when wagering on games. A perfect example of “square” NFL picks are parlaying the favorite with the “over” on Monday Night Football games. Not only does a bettor decrease the chances of winning a wager by parlaying two separate NFL picks together, but following the same pattern over and over again on one of the biggest, nationally televised games of the week gives the house a huge opportunity to beat the player if it loses.

Super Bowl XLVIII between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos is an example of the betting public being wrong on the biggest game of the year, rewarding sportsbooks with a record profit. In Las Vegas, bettors wagered a record $119.4 million on the Super Bowl, and sportsbooks reportedly made $19.7 million after the Seahawks routed the Broncos 43-8 as 2.5-point underdogs. Seattle actually opened as a small favorite before bettors pounded Denver to move the line the other way.

While it’s very easy to pick one or more of the favorites to win the Super Bowl every year when making NFL predictions, the most successful bettors make a profitable living by wagering on teams that prove to be underrated by oddsmakers. There are almost always second-tier teams that offer some “value” and are still very good but not viewed by sportsbooks as the top contenders before the season begins.