Betting Picks

Dolphins at Texans: TNF NFL Week 8 Betting Preview and Pick

Houston fans won’t be getting another World Series title this year after their Astros lost in the ALCS to the Boston Red Sox. But they can hit a home run if they nail Thursday’s Dolphins vs. Texans odds correctly. Houston’s NFL team is in sole possession of first place in the mediocre AFC South, and the Texans host the Miami Dolphins in the Thursday night game to kick off Week 8.

Houston is a 7-point favorite and will be our against the spread pick – although we’d recommend an alternate line of 6.5. The total is at 45.5 points.

The Texans lead the all-time series 7-1, but lost the most recent meeting 44-26 at home in 2015. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill had the game of his professional career in completing 18 of 19 for 282 yards and four scores for a rare perfect rating of 158.3. Tannehill is still Miami’s starting quarterback, but probably will sit Thursday again due to injury. Houston’s quarterback that day was Brian Hoyer, who is now a backup in New England. Current starting QB Deshaun Watson was still at Clemson.

Why Houston will cover the Dolphins vs. Texans odds

One certainly can’t question Watson’s toughness as he’s reportedly playing through a collapsed lung. In fact, because of that he wasn’t able to fly with the team from Houston to Jacksonville for Sunday’s game. Watson took the bus for 12 hours to Jacksonville. The Texans became only the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to win a fourth straight game following an 0-3 start with a 20-7 upset. The AFC South odds have Houston right there, but only because the division is so middling.

Watson wasn’t asked to do too much as Houston rushed for 141 yards and a touchdown on 37 carries – Lamar Miller had 100 of those yards and the TD on 22 carries. Watson completed 12 of 24 for 139 yards and a score. The defense has really picked it up of late. Houston allowed 74 points in its 0-3 start, but only 36 combined in the past three. No. 3 receiver Keke Coutee left vs. the Jags with a hamstring injury and isn’t likely to play Thursday.

Miami betting notes for Thursday

Tannehill missed a second straight game Sunday with a shoulder injury. Miami won the first without him in overtime over the Chicago Bears, but lost to another NFC North team Sunday, 32-21 at home to the Detroit Lions. The Dolphins’ defense was largely to blame for that, getting mauled for 248 yards rushing, the most by the Lions in more than two decades.

Backup quarterback Brock Osweiler had another solid game in completing 22 of 31 for 239 yards and two scores. He lost big-play receiver Albert Wilson to a hip injury in the second quarter, and he’s going to miss a while. Wilson entered Week 7 leading the NFL in averaging 13.5 yards after the catch. Fellow receiver Kenny Stills also was banged up. The Dolphins have been shopping disgruntled wideout DeVante Parker, but now might have to keep him. Defensive end Cameron Wake and cornerback Bobby McCain both played after missing two games because of knee injuries.

Miami vs. Houston line movement

Some books opened the Dolphins vs. Texans odds at Houston -7.5. The total has stayed steady in the early going.

Miami vs. Houston matchup trends

• The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their past eight on the road.
• Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five in Week 8.
• The total has gone under in eight of Miami’s past 10 on a Thursday.