January 30, 2014 Travis Reason

NFL News

Super Bowl Previews and Picks

The Seattle Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL. The Denver Broncos have the best offense. It’s a matchup of strength against strength…but what about the weakness versus weakness matchup? That’s likely where Super Bowl XLVIII is won or lost.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos

Game Line: Broncos -3

The Broncos are probably going to get the better news in terms of the weather forecast (see below). NFL online betting handicappers know that Peyton Manning is not a bad cold-weather quarterback; he’s a bad quarterback in windy games and this game is not supposed to be windy. Ultimately, the biggest reason to value the Broncos on the NFL betting odds is that their defense has been just as good as their offense in the playoffs – if not more so. Denver’s been able to stuff the run and force opponents into third-and-long situations in which its cornerbacks have been able to hold up on an island. Denver’s defense is definitely playing better than Seattle’s offense, and more specifically, its rushing defense should be able to contain Seahawk running back Marshawn Lynch. Denver looks like the more complete choice for your NFL betting picks here.

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Over/Under Betting

Game Line: 47 O/U

The weather might not affect this game as much as a lot of people had originally feared but it’s still a few days away from being a point in time when weather forecasts can be relied on for an accurate report for the game. Thursday is the day in the week when weather assessments can be reasonably depended on and viewed as gospel for Sunday’s main event. So, in that regard, the over-under might not be a total lock. However, Seattle’s defense is formidable as it’s the best in professional football. It will not be embarrassed by Denver’s offense – at least not on a consistent basis. Denver will not score as many as 30 points. The Seahawks’ offense has been struggling while Denver’s defense has been on a roll. If it remains locked in, Seattle will not reach 20 points in this game. The under looks like a very solid play to make.

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Best Denver Broncos Prop: Broncos Will Score a Touchdown in the Second Quarter

One will have a chance to bet on various propositions but the one involving Denver that makes the most NFL football betting sense is that the Broncos’ potent offense will score a touchdown in the second quarter.

Why the second quarter? The Broncos will have shaken off a measure of rust that goes with the two-week layoff between the conference title game and the Super Bowl. Moreover, Denver will also fight off the nerves that are part of playing in football’s biggest event on the biggest stage. Third, the Broncos and Peyton Manning will have gotten used to Seattle’s toughness and physicality on defense. Adjustments and some improved identifications of what Seattle is trying to do on defense will give the Broncos the ability to turn field goal drives into touchdown drives.

The second quarter is likely to be the stage of the game in which the Broncos figure things out. The third quarter is also a good bet but the second quarter is the better bet.

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Best Seattle Seahawks Prop: Seattle Has at Least One Scoreless Quarter

There is a betting proposition in which you can bet on one of two game-long outcomes: Seattle scoring in all four quarters or the Seahawks going scoreless in at least one quarter. The harsh reality of this game for the Seahawks is that their offense does sputter and moreover, that it sputters for long stretches of play. Russell Wilson has had a hard time quarterbacking this team over the past month and a half. He has not been a particularly consistent passer. The running game has been stuffed at times. Ball security has been an issue, as has third-down efficiency. Moreover, Denver’s defense was terrific in the AFC Championship Game against New England. The Broncos didn’t allow a point to the Patriots in either the first or the third quarter, and that’s a New England offense led by Tom Brady. If you’re looking for NFL betting tips, remember that Brady couldn’t score a point in two separate quarters. Wilson’s probably going to have at least one scoreless quarter.

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Latest Weather Update

The weather for Sunday’s game is trending slightly in Denver’s favor, relative to previous forecasts made just after the AFC and NFC Championship Games. This is the small collection of consensus weather forecasts for this game, although they are subject to change in the next 48 to 72 hours: most views from meteorological services have this game starting in the mid-30s, which would make it the coldest kickoff time for a Super Bowl, slightly eclipsing Super Bowl VI between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins in (outdoor) Tulane Stadium in New Orleans in 1972.

Yet, the game’s starting temperature won’t be the game’s ending temperature; that’s a luxury reserved for domed stadiums and nowhere else. This contest begins at 6:30 PM in East Rutherford, New Jersey, which means the game is a night game and will not ever have the benefit of sunshine and its warming properties. The temperature will certainly fall as the game unfolds, dipping into the high 20s before the final gun, possibly the mid-20s and maybe even the low 20s (23 or 22 degrees).

As for rain, the general outlook is that there’s roughly a 10% to 15% chance of precipitation – light snow or a bitterly cold rain – during the game, which marks a decreased likelihood of precipitation relative to a few days ago. Before this past weekend began, it was felt in many corners that there was a 30% chance of snow. In just about every forecast, though, there isn’t much of any feeling that a strong wind is going to be part of this game and those betting on the NFL know that’s great news for Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ offense. They want to stay away from wind as much as possible in this showdown.