November 1, 2013 Travis Reason

NFL News

October Betting Trends that Might Carry Over into November

At the end of September, we took a look at the betting trends from the first month of the NFL season to see if any would carry over into October. Well, if you continued to bet overs with the Denver Broncos, unders with the Kansas City Chiefs and against the Jacksonville Jaguars overall, then you’re looking good.

Here’s a look at the betting trends from the first eight weeks of the season:

Best Team Against The Spread: Dallas Cowboys (7-1), San Diego Chargers (5-1-1)

The Cowboys are just 4-4 on the year and the Chargers are just 4-3, yet these are your two top teams on the NFL lines this season.

Typically, the teams that do the best on the NFL odds are the ones that don’t often get the faith of the general public. Both teams have been viewed with an air of skepticism but both have actually exceeded expectations. The Cowboys are just .500 and have only exceeded expectations on the point spread, covering against Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington and even Denver when they weren’t really expected to. As for San Diego, they’ve exceeded expectations overall. They were written off in the preseason but are 4-3 and would be in the playoffs if they started today.

Worst Team Against The Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6)

Not only are the Jaguars and Bucs the two worst (and only winless) teams in the NFL, they are also abysmal against the NFL point spread too. Apparently oddsmakers can’t make the lines big enough for these teams as the Bucs have been outscored by 63 points this season while the Jags have been outpaced by a ridiculous 178 points. To put that in perspective, the Jags are losing by an average of 22.8 points per game. They are probably going 0-16 and you should probably continue to bet against them on the NFL betting odds the entire way.

Best Team for the Over: Denver Broncos (8-0), Chicago Bears (6-1), Minnesota Vikings (6-1)

NFL online betting handicappers that read this column last month and heeded the advice were rewarded. The three teams that were featured in this NFL betting tips section last month are all still here. We’ve even written up a separate column solely focusing on why you should be betting the Broncos overs each week and that’s continued to cash.

Aside from sounding like Jim Cramer tooting his own horn with stock picks, the bottom line is that you should continue the strategy with – at least – the Broncos. The Vikings and Bears have significant issues at quarterback, so buyer beware there but the Broncos continue to score enough to carry games over the number.

Best Team for the Under: Oakland Raiders (1-6), Kansas City Chiefs (2-6)

Those who bet on the NFL have seen these two AFC West teams lead the way for the unders. Both teams have so-so quarterbacks with conservative offenses, which differs from the norm (read: spread offenses) in the NFL these days.

Outside of getting rolled by Denver, the Raiders defense has allowed just 18.8 points per game while the Chiefs lead the NFL in points allowed per game at 12.3. As long as those defenses hold up, there’s a good chance they continue to cash on the unders.