NFL Week 11 Betting Previews and Picks

Those who bet on the NFL know that the playoff picture is changing on a weekly basis. The Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions are both in playoff position at the moment while the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears are both at risk of not making the playoffs.

The Cincinnati Bengals, who were once comfortable at 6-2, are looking over their shoulder in the AFC North after a two-game losing streak. And the New York Jets, who were expected to be awful this season, are in position to become the best candidate for the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC.

Over in the NFC, the South is now a race between Carolina and the New Orleans Saints. It’s no longer a one-way route for the Saints, who have been presented with a challenger. The Seattle Seahawks are now in complete control of the NFC West, with Arizona now only one game back of the San Francisco 49ers for second place in that division. The Philadelphia Eagles have caught the Dallas Cowboys at 5-5 in the NFC East with the New York Giants and Washington Redskins now being 3-6, only one and a half games back. Everything is bubbling up to the surface.

Here’s the inside scoop on Week 11 of the NFL season.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Game Line: Bengals -5.5, 41.5 O/U

Cleveland quarterback Jason Campbell is more than capable of winning this game – especially when you realize that he’s going up against a quarterback – Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton – who has been very turnover-prone this season and continues to display a lot of bad habits. Dalton made one of the worst plays of the NFL season when he took a safety in overtime in Week 9 that gave the Miami Dolphins the win. Last week in Baltimore, he threw three more picks, which means he now has six interceptions in his last two games. The Browns are coming off a bye and will give Cincinnati all they can handle. Even if they don’t win, they should cover the NFL online betting spread.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Game Line: Broncos -8, 49.5 O/U

It’s the showdown we’ve all been waiting for: Kansas City’s defense versus Denver’s offense. Peyton Manning will play on Sunday but those who bet on the NFL have to remember that he did aggravate his ankle injury this past Sunday against the San Diego Chargers. The Chiefs are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare, which means their defense should limit Denver’s offense but will the Chiefs’ offense be able to score enough to win? The under will probably be the best bet to make here on the NFL odds. With Manning’s ankle and the extra week off for the Chiefs, one has to think that Kansas City has a good shot to keep this game in their range and at least cover the NFL betting odds.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Game Line: Bills -1, 41 O/U

The Jets and Bills seem to play one way one week and then another the next. Betting on this game is naturally fraught with risk, more than most NFL lines you might encounter this season. The Bills might derive some energy from playing at home but the Jets are coming off their bye week. Expect them to be a bit fresher than the Bills and as long as Geno Smith doesn’t turn over the ball a ton, the Jets should leave Ralph Wilson Stadium with a win.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

Game Line: Saints -3, 47.5 O/U

In the Week 11 schedule, this has certainly become a featured game, though for a different set of reasons compared to a few weeks ago. In late October, this figured to be a game that was going to help New Orleans get the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Now, though, New Orleans has slipped to the No. 2 spot and is merely trying to hold off the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South title. San Francisco had been in good position for the NFC West title but the Niners’ loss last week to Carolina has them in big trouble. Never mind catching Seattle, the 49ers are currently sixth in the NFC and are only one game ahead of the Arizona Cardinals for the final playoff spot. The Cards have a winnable game in Jacksonville this week, by the way. The 49ers are banged up, which means that New Orleans should have more resources to call upon over 60 minutes. Take them on the NFL point spread.

Home Dog with the Best Chance to Win is… The Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers might be just a 1.5-point underdog on the NFL odds but perhaps that’s part of the point. They are a home dog against a Detroit Lions team that is so wobbly from week to week. It’s not as though Detroit produces authoritative performances on a regular basis. The Lions might not have managed to get past the Chicago Bears if Chicago head coach Marc Trestman had pulled injured quarterback Jay Cutler earlier in the game in favor of backup Josh McCown. Pittsburgh seemed to find a much more settled mindset against the Buffalo Bills this past weekend. The Steelers might be entering a groove now that they have nothing to lose in the second half of the season.

Home Dog of the Week: Steelers +1.5

Most Important Injury of the Week is…

Aaron Rodgers. The Packers would be a very likely favorite against the New York Giants with Rodgers in the lineup. Without him, Scott Tolzien will have to start under center this weekend on the road. The Giants have not solved all their problems as a team but with Rodgers watching from the sidelines, the Packers are a very weak ball club – one that got torn to shreds at home by the noticeably average Philadelphia Eagles this past Sunday.

7-Point Teaser of the Week: Seahawks -6.5 & Cardinals +0.5

Those looking for some NFL betting tips like to hear about the storylines that help teams get motivated. Well, this week, it looks like the Seahawks will activate wide receiver Percy Harvin for the first time, who they acquired from Minnesota this offseason. Conveniently, they are hosting the Vikings this week. Minnesota quarterback Christian Ponder expects to play Sunday but don’t be surprised if he gets throttled by the vicious Seahawks defense. We’ll tease the Seahawks down under a touchdown for our first pick.

For the second selection, we’ll tease the Cardinals from touchdown-favorite into an underdog role. The Cards are in Jacksonville and while very quietly, they are now 5-4 and a game out of the playoffs – if you can believe that. They’ve won four of six and should be pretty confident facing the Jags, who just got their first win of the season last week.