Betting Picks

Wild Card Weekend: Atlanta at LA Rams NFL Betting Preview and Pick

The Los Angeles Rams are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2004 season when they were still in St. Louis. That club lost to the Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round – the only time the teams have met in the postseason. They do again Saturday night in Los Angeles in the NFC’s wild card round, with the Rams as 6-point favorites.

Los Angeles and Atlanta treated the final Sunday of the regular season very differently. The NFC West champion Rams (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) rested most of their key starters in a 34-13 home loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

Coach Sean McVay’s decision to do that might have cost running back Todd Gurley the NFL MVP Award and did cost him the rushing title. Gurley led the league entering Week 17 but was passed by Chiefs rookie Kareem Hunt, who finished with 1,327 yards to Gurley’s 1,305. Gurley did top the league with 19 total touchdowns. He probably finishes second to New England’s Tom Brady in the MVP voting.

Thanks in large part to Gurley and second-year QB Jared Goff, maybe the most improved player in the NFL this season, the Rams led the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game. They became the first team in the Super Bowl era to go from last in scoring one season to first the next. McVay is a lock to win NFL Coach of the Year.

Star defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s chances of winning NFL Defensive Player of the Year also might have taken a hit by sitting out Week 17. He has a career-high-tying 11 sacks. Only four defensive tackles have won DPOY since the sack became an official statistic in 1982.

Atlanta (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) didn’t have the option of resting guys in Week 17 as it beat visiting Carolina 22-10 to earn the conference’s final wild card spot. Clearly, 20 points is the magic number for this team as the Falcons are unbeaten this year when they score at least that many and 0-6 when they don’t.

The Falcons led the league in scoring last year at 33.8 points per game – QB Matt Ryan was the league MVP — but that unit hasn’t been near as efficient in 2017 (22.1 points per game) without former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, now the 49ers’ head coach.

The Falcons’ defense is better this year than last, however, as under first-year coordinator Marquand Manuel it finished Top 10 in both scoring and total defense for the first time since 1998. That team made a run to the Super Bowl but lost it. These Falcons are looking to become the first team to reach the Super Bowl a season after losing in the big game since the Buffalo Bills lost four Super Bowls in a row in the early 1990s.

In Week 14 last season, Atlanta won at the Rams 42-14. Ryan threw for 237 yards and three scores. Tevin Coleman caught a TD pass and rushed for one. Los Angeles turned it over five times, three by Goff. These Rams are much better and the Falcons not as good. Atlanta was just 2-6 ATS away from home during the 2017 regular season. Take Los Angeles.