Betting Picks

Week 9: Oakland at Miami SNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

The trade deadlines in Major League Baseball and the NBA are fantastic because you see big names dealt all the time. For whatever reason, the NFL trade deadline usually comes and goes without much of a peep.

That all changed in a big way this week, and one of the most shocking deals was the Miami Dolphins sending their star running back Jay Ajayi to the Philadelphia Eagles for just a fourth-round pick. What message does that send to the Miami players? We may find out Sunday night when the Dolphins are 3-point home dogs on the NFL betting board against the Oakland Raiders.

Both the Raiders and the Dolphins were wild-card teams in the AFC last year, but a return to the postseason isn’t looking likely for either. Miami might be one of the most misleading 4-3 teams (3-3-1 ATS) in NFL history as it has a point differential of minus-60 – the fourth-worst of any team with a winning record through seven games in league annals – and the worst offense in the league at 252.4 yards and 13.1 points per game.

Head coach Adam Gase, an offensive-minded guy, blistered his team following last Thursday’s embarrassing 40-0 loss in Baltimore. Gase said guys weren’t “putting the work in,” which is pretty strong stuff. Clearly, Gase must have included Ajayi as one of those lazy guys in the wake of Tuesday’s trade. Ajayi was one of the breakout stars of the 2016 season and a big reason the Dolphins made the playoffs as he rushed for 1,272 yards (fourth in NFL) and eight scores. The former Boise State star, still just 24, also had rare back-to-back 200-yard games – only three players previously had done that.

This year Ajayi had just 465 yards and no touchdowns on 138 carries, although a weak passing game hasn’t helped him. Miami’s two backup running backs, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams, have combined for 57 rushing yards on 22 carries and zero touchdowns this year.

Jay Cutler will be back at quarterback for Miami on Sunday after missing the Ravens game with cracked ribs. Cutler’s 78.8 rating is one of the worst in the NFL as he is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 995 yards, seven TDs and five picks. Cutler can’t be any worse than backup Matt Moore was vs. the Ravens, though, as Moore was 25-for-44 for 176 yards and two picks that were returned for touchdowns.

Oakland (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) is tied for last in the AFC West after going 12-4 in the 2016 regular season. The Raiders had a stirring Week 7 home win over Kansas City to potentially save their season, but then they were flat in last Sunday’s 34-14 loss in Buffalo. Oakland gave it away four times. Running back Marshawn Lynch was suspended for that game but will return Sunday. Might not matter much as Lynch is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry.

The Dolphins have won five straight (last in 2014) and 11 of the past 13 vs. the Raiders, but those were largely different players. Miami has covered only six of its past 19 vs. teams with a losing record and won’t cover here, either, in the wake of the Ajayi trade.