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Week 9: Detroit at Green Bay MNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

Death, taxes and the Green Bay Packers not losing a home game to the Detroit Lions. Those have all been nearly sure things in life for the past 25 years. However, there’s something unique about the Monday night game at Lambeau Field to close Week 9 between these NFC North rivals: The Packers are 3-point underdogs. It’s just the second time since 1991 that Green Bay has been a home dog in this series.

What is the common denominator of the Packers being home underdogs twice in that span against the Lions? No Aaron Rodgers. The two-time NFL MVP and probably the most important player to his team in the league broke his right collarbone in a Week 6 loss in Minnesota and is likely done for the season, although if the Packers are still in the playoff chase late he might return.

The only other time Detroit has been a favorite in Wisconsin since the early 1990s was the regular-season finale in the 2011 season. Rodgers was rested that day as the Packers had wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Green Bay won regardless, 45-41, and has lost just once in Wisconsin to the Lions in the past 26 meetings: Week 10 of the 2015 season, 18-16. And it took a missed 52-yard field goal by Mason Crosby as time expired.

Rodgers’ injury has changed the complexion of the entire NFC and certainly the NFC North, which the Packers had been heavily favored to win again. Former UCLA star Brett Hundley made his first NFL start in place of Rodgers in Week 7 and threw for a scant 87 yards in a 26-17 home loss to New Orleans. The Packers (4-3 SU, 34 ATS) were off this past week, so perhaps all that time practicing with the first team will improve Hundley’s outlook for Monday.

Detroit (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) somehow hasn’t won a division title since 1993 and that can probably be ruled out with a loss Monday night considering the Minnesota Vikings are 6-2 (on the bye). The Lions lost a third straight game last Sunday night, 20-15 vs. Pittsburgh.

It has to be almost unprecedented for a team to have 482 yards of offense and not score a touchdown, but Detroit pulled that off with only five Matt Prater field goals. The Lions had first-and-10 at the Pittsburgh 11 with under three minutes left but couldn’t get into the end zone. Detroit ran 16 red zone plays without scoring a TD, the most plays run by a team inside the opponents’ 20 this season without scoring a touchdown.

The Packers swept the Lions last year. It was 34-27 at Lambeau Field with Green Bay leading 31-3 late in the first half before Detroit made it interesting late. In a winner-take-all NFC North game in Week 17 in Motown, Green Bay won 31-24 behind a huge game from Rodgers. Green Bay has covered seven of the past 10 at home in this series and will here thanks to the extra time to prepare during the bye.