Betting Picks

Week 8: Miami at Baltimore TNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

The fates have been rather kind to the Baltimore Ravens this season as they have more often than not faced a quarterback who isn’t exactly considered, well, all that good. But with a 3-4 record, the Ravens haven’t been able to capitalize much on their good fortune.

That defense will see another backup quarterback Thursday night when the Miami Dolphins come to town. The Ravens are 3-point favorites on the NFL betting lines.

In Week 1, the Ravens won at Cincinnati, and the Bengals’ Andy Dalton is solid. In Week 2, Baltimore topped Cleveland 24-10 with Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer making only his second career start. He has since been benched twice. Week 3, the Ravens went to London and were slaughtered 44-7 by the Jaguars, whose QB, Blake Bortles, has the second-most turnovers in the NFL since 2014.

There’s no shame in losing to Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers, which the Ravens did 26-9 at home in Week 4. In Week 5 in Oakland, the Ravens caught a break with MVP candidate and QB Derek Carr sidelined with a back injury and Baltimore took advantage in a 30-17 win with former Bills first-round bust EJ Manuel starting under center for the Raiders.

In Week 6, the Ravens were upset 27-24 in overtime at home to Chicago, which was giving rookie Mitchell Trubisky only his second career start. He completed just eight passes in the game. Finally, last Sunday in Minnesota it was journeyman backup Case Keenum leading the Vikings to a 24-16 victory over Baltimore.

The big problem for the Ravens is their offense and their quarterback, former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco – now perhaps the most overpaid player in the NFL. Flacco has thrown for 1,189 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions for a rating of 70.0. The only QB with a worse rating is the overwhelmed Kizer on the perhaps historically bad Browns.

Flacco could be down his top three receivers on Thursday as well. Jeremy Maclin (ankle) and Breshad Perriman (concussion) missed the Minnesota game with injuries and Mike Wallace left with a concussion.

Miami (4-2) will turn to No. 2 quarterback Matt Moore as Jay Cutler cracked some ribs in Sunday’s 31-28 win over the Jets. Dolphins fans have been booing the struggling Cutler incessantly and cheered when Moore came in. He led Miami to the comeback victory with two fourth-quarter touchdown passes. So Cutler might have lost his job regardless but now is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.

Moore started three games late last regular season for Miami with Ryan Tannehill hurt and the team was 2-1. If you were to rate backup QBs in the NFL from 1-32, Moore likely lands in the Top 10.

Including playoffs, the Ravens have covered their past seven against Miami. Baltimore blew out the visiting Dolphins in Week 13 last year, 38-6. Flacco played like a Super Bowl MVP that day, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns. Tannehill was picked off three times. Take Miami to end that ATS drought in the series, though, as Baltimore is simply too banged up and has covered just five of its past 21 after a loss.