Betting Picks

Week 4: Colts at Seahawks SNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

In theory, the Sunday night NFL games on NBC are supposed to be marquee matchups of the week between evenly-matched good teams. However, the first three Sunday night games this season have largely been yawners, decided by 16, 11 and 17 points, respectively, in favor of the home team.

This week’s matchup between the Colts and Seahawks looks far from evenly matched as Seattle is a 13-point home favorite, easily the biggest Week 4 spread on the board.

When the schedule was released in April, the main storyline for this game was to be the second pro meeting between quarterbacks from the 2012 draft class in Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck (the No. 1 overall pick) and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (a steal at No. 75 overall). The two met in Indianapolis in Week 5 of the 2013 season, and the Colts won 34-28 behind 229 yards passing and two TDs from Luck.

Luck had shoulder surgery in January and still hasn’t even practiced with the team since. That might finally happen at some point this week, but he’ll be limited and he’s already ruled out for Week 4. The target for Luck seems to be Week 6. Thus, it’s Jacoby Brissett making his second start. The former Patriots third-stringer was acquired on the eve of the season for disappointing receiver Phillip Dorsett.

The Colts (1-2) have won that trade handily as Dorsett has barely played for New England and Brissett has been solid with Indy. He threw for 259 yards and a TD while rushing for two scores in the Colts’ Week 3 31-28 win over Cleveland. There were rumors that Coach Chuck Pagano would be fired had Indianapolis lost that game. Luck is the franchise player, but the Colts now appear to have a solid backup QB in Brissett.

Seattle (1-2) was the heavy preseason NFL betting favorite to repeat in the NFC West but finds itself a game behind the surprising Los Angeles Rams. The offensive line has been a major issue in the first three weeks as the Seahawks are averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and Wilson has been under siege. The offense scored just one touchdown combined the first two games before Wilson broke out for 373 yards passing and four TDs in Week 3. The 27 points weren’t enough as the normally stout Seattle defense allowed 33 points and 420 yards at the Tennessee Titans.

The Seahawks could face an uphill climb to make the playoffs, as since 1990 when the postseason field expanded to 12 teams just 24 percent of teams to start 1-2 made it. Their run defense must improve as it ranks last in the NFL in allowing 5.3 yards per carry. It was No. 1 last year at 3.4.

Seattle is 18-0 SU while covering 11 times in its last 18 games as at least a 13-point home favorite. Indianapolis is 3-14 SU in its past 17 games as at least a 13-point road underdog, but 8-8-1 ATS. Seattle wins this game, but the 13 points for the Colts on the NFL betting lines is too many to pass up.