Betting Picks

Week 13: Washington at Dallas TNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

They – whomever they are – say that running backs have been devalued in the modern-day NFL with the league’s emphasis on passing. It’s why you no longer see tailbacks get those massive contracts as free agents or win NFL MVP honors. In 2005, the Seahawks’ Shaun Alexander was named MVP and the next year it was the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson. Just one tailback has won the award since, otherwise it has all been quarterbacks.

This is mentioned because of the Dallas Cowboys (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS), who are 1-point home favorites for the Week 13 Thursday night game against the NFC East rival Washington Redskins. Some fans (and players) complain about Thursday night games because the quick turnaround ruins the quality of play. That won’t be the case here as both teams played on Thanksgiving.

Starting in Week 7, the Cowboys started playing their best football of the season over a three-game stretch with double-digit wins over San Francisco, these Redskins (more on that shortly) and Kansas City. Dallas totaled 101 points in those victories, and it was largely on the back of Ezekiel Elliott, the 2016 NFL rushing king as a rookie. Elliott had 390 yards rushing and five TDs plus a receiving TD in those wins.

Alas, he was forced to start serving his six-game suspension starting in Week 10, and Dallas hasn’t been the same since. On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys were soundly beaten at home 28-6 by the Chargers. It was the team’s third straight loss by at least 20 points and third in a row failing to reach double-digit points. That had never happened in franchise history. So at least in the Cowboys’ case, a running back is clearly vital to the team’s success.

QB Dak Prescott sure misses Elliott as Prescott, who edged out his teammate for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2016, hasn’t thrown for more than 179 yards during the skid and has five interceptions. He is just the fourth QB in the past decade to make three straight starts and have his team score fewer than 10 points.

Washington (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) had a much better Thanksgiving holiday, beating the terrible New York Giants 20-10. Not a great performance by the Redskins, but a step forward for a defense that had allowed 72 points in back-to-back losses. Also a big positive was the play of rookie running back Samaje Perine. His role was going to increase after Washington lost fellow tailback Chris Thompson to a season-ending injury in Week 11. Perine rushed for 100 yards and caught three passes for 30 yards vs. New York.

Dallas goes for a second straight series sweep of Washington thanks to a 33-19 victory in Week 8. That was largely due to Elliott, who had a career-high 33 carries for 150 yards and two scores on a rainy day. The Redskins struggled in the elements with three turnovers and having a field-goal attempt blocked. Kirk Cousins’ lone interception was returned for a score.

Oddly, the road team has covered seven straight in this series, and Washington is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 in Dallas. Back the Redskins.