Betting Picks

Week 12: Houston at Baltimore MNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

There’s a potentially important game in the AFC wild-card chase to close out Week 12 on Monday night as Houston and Baltimore meet for only the ninth time. The Ravens, who lead the series 7-2 (including one playoff game), are 7-point NFL betting favorites.

Entering Week 12, Baltimore (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) held the final wild-card spot in the AFC as it looks to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The Buffalo Bills also have a 5-5 record, but the Ravens win the current tiebreaker with a better record inside the conference. Those two teams don’t play in the regular season. Houston (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is the two-time defending AFC South champion but is three games behind first-place Jacksonville there, so it’s wild card or bust. Entering Week 12, the Texans sat just 11^th in the AFC overall standings, though.

Things might have been much different for Houston had young superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson not torn his ACL in practice before a Week 9 game against Indianapolis. He was off to a record-setting start and was all but a lock to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.  The team is 1-2 since the injury behind backup QB Tom Savage.

In Week 11, Savage played his best of those three games in completing 22 of 32 for 230 yards, two touchdowns and one pick in a 31-21 victory over Arizona, which was starting third-string QB Blaine Gabbert due to injuries. It was Savage’s first career multi-touchdown game and put to rest, for now, any thoughts Coach Bill O’Brien might have had of turning to T.J. Yates.

The news wasn’t all good against Arizona as Texans rookie running back D’Onta Foreman suffered a torn Achilles’ tendon in the fourth quarter. He had his best day as a pro before that, rushing for 65 yards and two touchdowns. Houston also played without No. 2 receiver Will Fuller due to cracked ribs, and it’s not yet clear if he can go against the Ravens.

If recent history is any indication, Baltimore will win the Super Bowl. OK, probably not. But the Ravens beat the Packers 23-0 in Week 11 for their third shutout of the season. They are only the fifth team with three shutouts in the past 30 years. Three of the previous four did win the Super Bowl, including the 2000 Ravens team that had a legendary defense. The 2017 unit has been very hit-or-miss because in the club’s five wins, it hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any. In the five losses, Baltimore has surrendered at least 23 points in all, including 44 in a blowout in Jacksonville.

The Ravens generally have to win with defense because they are second-to-last in the NFL in offensive yards per game and 17^th in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco’s QB rating of 74.4 is 31^st in the NFL as he has thrown nine TD passes to 11 interceptions. Houston ranks 26^th against the pass.

Houston is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 Monday games, while the Ravens are on a 5-1 ATS run on MNF. Take Baltimore. The home team has covered four of the past five in the series.