Betting Picks

Titans at Texans: MNF NFL Week 12 Betting Preview and Pick

The Week 11 Monday night game between the Chiefs and Rams featured two of the best offenses in league annals, and resulted in the highest total in NFL history. The Monday night game to close Week 12, on the other hand, doesn’t figure to have anywhere near the fireworks of that game. The Tennessee Titans visit the Houston Texans in an AFC South matchup. But, who will come out on top in these Titans vs Texans odds?

This could be vital toward determining the division champion. The Titans look for the season sweep as they were 20-17 home winners over the Texans in Week 2. Houston was a 3.5-point road favorite in large part because Tennessee starting quarterback Marcus Mariota was out injured. Veteran journeyman Blaine Gabbert took his spot, didn’t make any mistakes and threw a touchdown pass.

The Titans’ other TD came on a trick play, and Ryan Succop won it on a field goal with a minute to go. Tennessee was outgained 437-238. Houston’s Deshaun Watson threw for 310 yards and two scores, but was picked off once. Both Will Fuller (now out for season) and DeAndre Hopkins had at least 100 yards receiving and a score.

The Titans vs Texans odds have Houston as 5.5-point favorites and will be our against the spread pick. The total is 41.5.

Why Houston will cover the Titans vs Texans odds

Seems unfathomable now, but Texans coach Bill O’Brien’s seat was red hot when his team was 0-3, but Houston hasn’t lost since and has a two-game lead atop the AFC South over Indianapolis and Tennessee. The Texans are the first team since 1970 to win seven straight after starting 0-3.

Houston was a 23-21 winner in Week 11 at the NFC East-leading Washington Redskins, and probably ruined the Redskins’ season by breaking the leg of starting QB Alex Smith. Houston rookie safety Justin Reid had a 101-yard interception return for a touchdown – only the third player in franchise history with at least a 100-yard return. Since allowing 34 points in a win at the Colts in Week 4, Houston hasn’t surrendered more than 23.

Tennessee betting notes for Monday

The Titans entered Week 11 off back-to-back upset wins in Dallas and over New England, but were crushed by the surging Colts 38-10. Then again, the Titans have never beaten Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck and were probably going to lose regardless. Nevertheless, Mariota left late in the first half with an injured right elbow and didn’t return, ending any realistic chance his team had at a shot.

The team is calling it a stinger and hopes he can play Monday; the extra day certainly helps the former Heisman winner’s chances. If not, it will be Gabbert (and the spread likely will grow). The 38 points allowed was the most this season by a very good Titans defense; they haven’t surrendered more than 21 points in their previous five games.

Houston vs. Tennessee line movement

The NFL odds for this game saw some books open as low as Houston -4.5, but, again, the spread could climb even higher if Mariota can’t play.

Houston vs. Tennessee matchup trends

• The Titans have covered just four of the past 15 in this series.
• Houston has won six of its past eight AFC South games at home.
• The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings.