Betting Picks

Patriots at Bills: MNF NFL Week 8 Betting Preview and Pick

The Monday Night Football game to conclude Week 8 of the NFL season looks to be one of the biggest mismatches of the year as the New England Patriots (5-2), with a quarterback by the name of Tom Brady, visit the Buffalo Bills (2-5), with a quarterback by the name of Derek Anderson. That has to skew the Patriots vs. Bills odds for Monday night, just a bit.

To no surprise, the Patriots are 14-point favorites but will not be our against the spread recommendation. No question, they win the game. But the Bills can hang within 13 on their home field (although an alternate line of Bills +14.5 is better). The total is 44.5 points.

Why Buffalo will cover the Patriots vs. Bills odds

Why the Bills cover really has little do to with their talent, but more that you really should always bet home teams getting at least two touchdowns in the NFL. The only game in betting databases showing where Buffalo was at least a 14-point home dog was on November 18, 2007, when NFL odds had the Bills at +16. They lost to these Patriots 56-10.

The Patriots could take this one for granted a bit as they have a huge Week 9 matchup at home vs. the Green Bay Packers, a potential Super Bowl preview. We also remind that Buffalo was +17 in Week 3 at Minnesota and pulled off a 27-6 stunner – the NFL’s biggest point-spread upset since 1995.

The veteran journeyman Anderson starts at QB for the second straight week with rookie Josh Allen still hurting. Anderson, signed off the street a few weeks ago, was 20-for-31 for 175 yards and three picks in last Sunday’s 37-5 loss at the Indianapolis Colts.

New England Patriots betting notes for Monday

Remember when some we calling the Patriots’ dynasty dead when they were 1-2? New England has scored at least 38 points in every game since in winning four straight to regain its usual spot atop the AFC East.

In Sunday’s 38-31 win in Chicago, the Pats played without star tight end Rob Gronkowski, and good-looking rookie running back Sony Michel left with what looked like a serious injury. Somehow, Michel avoided structural damage and is listed as week-to-week. James White, one of the NFL’s best receiving backs, would take a bigger role if Michel sits, which seems likely. Gronkowski might return this week.

New England did look bad in losing its first two road games this season until winning in Chicago. Brady also didn’t have receivers Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon available back then.

Buffalo vs. New England line movement

The Patriots vs. Bills odds opened at -13 at many books and the total at 44.5.

Buffalo vs. New England matchup trends

• The Patriots have covered just one of their past five on a Monday.
• New England is 2-7 ATS in its past nine on the road against teams with losing home records.
• Buffalo has covered five of its previous seven after a loss.