Betting Picks

Falcons at Eagles: NFL Week 1 Betting Preview and Pick

The 2018 NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the Philadelphia Eagles beginning the defense of their first-ever Super Bowl title by hosting the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff rematch.  The defending champions have won their season-opener game the following campaign 11 of the last 14 years, but the Falcons are our NFL point spread pick in the battle of the birds on Thursday night as 3-point underdogs.

Why the Falcons Are Our NFL Point Spread Pick

Revenge Factor

Atlanta’s 2017 season was ended at the hands of the Eagles and in disappointing fashion. The Falcons should have won their Divisional Round matchup in Philadelphia on January 13. The Falcons were 2.5-point faves and had a first-and-goal at the Eagles’ nine-yard line with just over a minute left. Matt Ryan and Co. couldn’t punch it in and lost 15-10.

Foles Has Holes

Philly playoff hero and Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles is under center again for the Eagles on Thursday. That’s because Carson Wentz still isn’t quite ready off the torn ACL and MCL he suffered in Week 14 last year. Foles had a shaky preseason and picked up a minor shoulder injury against the New England Patriots in his first game action since the Super Bowl.

The Eagles will also be missing No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery. He missed the exhibition schedule following offseason shoulder surgery and was recently activated off the physically unable to perform list. He’s likely to miss the first two games. Jeffery caught 57 balls for 789 yards and nine touchdowns last regular season. He had four catches for 61 yards in the playoff win over Atlanta.

Falcons Ready To Soar

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is only two years removed from his 2016 MVP season. The Falcons’ offense dropped off quite a bit last year under first-year coordinator Steve Sarkisian. All of Ryan’s numbers were down last year, but he still has an enviable group of talent around him in running backs Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, and receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. If he takes advantage of these weapons, Ryan could make a move up the 2018 NFL MVP odds.

Line Movement

The Eagles opened as 4-point favorites but the spread dropped down to 2.5 points over the last week. Oddsmakers and bettors alike see the drop-off in talent between Wentz and Foles for the Eagles. Atlanta appears to be the NFL point spread pick of choice because of Philly’s injury situation. The Over/Under line was as high as 47 but most online sportsbooks are dealing 45 heading into the Thursday night matchup.

Trends

• The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their past eight Thursday games.
• NFL defending champions are 2-6 ATS in the last eight season-opening games.
• The Under is 7-0 in Atlanta’s last seven games.
• The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games between the Falcons and Eagles.