Betting Picks

Chiefs at Patriots: SNF NFL Week 6 Betting Preview and Pick

It’s one of the marquee matchups of the 2018 regular season and a potential AFC Championship Game preview on Sunday night in Week 6 as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the New England Patriots. NFL odds have New England is a 3-point favorite and will be our against the spread pick partly because the team had extra time to prepare for that crazy-good Kansas City offense. The total is a very high 59 for this Chiefs vs Patriots betting matchup.

Actually, you could probably call this one of perhaps four AFC title game previews on the Patriots’ schedule, because at this point you almost have to assume they make it. The last time New England didn’t was following the 2010 season. The Pats already beat a very good Jacksonville Jaguars team and still face the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers. It wouldn’t surprise to see any of those teams or the Chiefs opposite the Pats for the AFC title.

The Patriots have lost two of the past three against the Chiefs, including in the playoffs. The teams opened the 2017 season in the Kickoff Game in Foxboro and Kansas City stunned the then-defending Super Bowl champions 42-27.

Why New England will cover the Chiefs vs Patriots betting spread

Alabama coach Nick Saban and New England’s Bill Belichick are friendly and have mutual respect for one another. The Tide have yet to lose a season opener under Saban because they are so well-prepared and he has had all offseason to game plan for that Week 1 opponent. Belichick is the same way, and you don’t want to give him extra time to prepare his defense for a high-scoring foe. He will have it here, though, as the Patriots played last Thursday and thumped Indianapolis.

The New England offense looked the best it has all year against the Colts in the 38-24 win with the season debut of receiver Julian Edelman off suspension, the continued integration of new receiver Josh Gordon into the game plan (he caught his first Patriots TD pass vs. the Colts) and the emergence of rookie running back Sony Michel.

Kansas City betting notes for Sunday

The Chiefs and Rams remain the only two unbeaten teams in the league – not coincidentally, they are the No. 2 and No. 3 scoring offenses as well (the New Orleans Saints are No. 1). Young Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes is still having a fantastic, MVP-caliber season, but has come back to earth the past two games a bit. He threw his first two interceptions of the year and no TD passes in Sunday’s win over Jacksonville.

Kansas City’s defense continues to be a major problem. That group was gashed for 502 yards against the Jaguars, but did force five Blake Bortles turnovers. Tom Brady is not Blake Bortles. It should also be noted the Chiefs started 5-0 last year before going into a two-month slump.

New England vs. Kansas City line movement

The Chiefs vs Patriots betting spread opened at -3.5 at some books and that half point could be vital. The total has risen as much as 2.5 points.

New England vs. Kansas City matchup trends

• The Patriots have won 10 straight at home by an average margin of 16 points.
• New England has covered 10 of its past 14 night games.
• The total has gone over in the past three games in this series.