Underdog Value and Spread Picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend

As Wild Card Weekend wrapped up, several underdogs delivered serious betting value — both outright and against the spread (ATS). Bettors tracking sharp money and matchup-driven plays were rewarded, particularly in tightly lined contests and lower-total games.

Drawing from CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports, TheBoostBet, and Sportsbook Review, we break down the most profitable underdog performances, key ATS trends, and what these results could signal heading into the Divisional Round.

Underdogs That Covered (and Cashed) in Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers (+1.5 at Bears)

Final Score: Packers 27, Bears 20
The Packers were one of the most popular underdog spread picks of the weekend — and for good reason. Despite being on the road, they had recent playoff experience, a healthier QB in Jordan Love, and a late-season defensive surge.

ATS Insight: Green Bay improved to 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games as a road underdog, per SBR.
Market Move: The line flipped midweek from Bears -1.5 to Packers -1, then closed around pick’em at most books, showing clear sharp support for the underdog.
Implication: The Packers’ win not only paid off for underdog backers, but also boosted their futures price, as they now face the top-seeded Seahawks next week.

49ers (+5.5 at Eagles)

Final Score: 49ers 24, Eagles 17
The 49ers were heavily bet as a public and sharp underdog, particularly after injury updates on key Eagles defenders. With George Kittle suffering a mid-game Achilles injury, it was San Francisco’s defense and ground game that took over.

ATS Note: The 49ers are now 5-1 ATS in their last six as road dogs.
Yahoo Betting Angle: Multiple analysts pointed to the 49ers’ EPA/play advantage and better turnover differential as reasons to fade the Eagles’ spread.

Books took lopsided action on the Eagles early in the week before the line corrected back toward SF +4.5 to +5 at close.

Chargers (+4.0 at Patriots)

Final Score: Patriots 21, Chargers 20
While the Chargers didn’t win outright, they covered the +4.0 spread with a strong second-half push. Despite poor red zone execution, the Chargers outgained New England and held them scoreless in the fourth quarter.

CBS Best Bet Highlight: Chargers +4.0 was one of their top underdog calls, noting New England’s injuries in the secondary and declining pass rush effectiveness.
Line Watch: Some shops saw this close as high as Chargers +4.5 due to late Patriots money, offering additional closing line value for L.A. backers.

Underdogs That Missed (But Showed Sharp Interest)

Steelers (+3 vs Texans)

Final Score: Texans 23, Steelers 13
Pittsburgh was a trendy underdog pick due to playoff experience and a low total (O/U 39.5). However, the Steelers struggled to sustain drives, and C.J. Stroud played mistake-free football.

ATS Context: Despite the loss, the Steelers were 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs entering the matchup.
Fade Note: Yahoo’s longshot betting column noted concern about Pittsburgh’s QB volatility and offensive line injuries, which proved critical.

Panthers (+10.5 at Rams)

Final Score: Rams 34, Panthers 10
This was the biggest line of the weekend — and the Rams covered easily. Still, some analysts (TheBoostBet and CBS) saw value in the Panthers’ side based on backdoor cover potential, a game script that never materialized.

Betting Takeaways & ATS Trends Moving Forward

Road underdogs went 3-3 ATS on Wild Card Weekend — with Green Bay and San Francisco delivering outright wins.
Public favorites like the Patriots and Eagles failed to cover, reaffirming the risk of laying points in tight matchups with questionable quarterback play or late-season form dips.
Per TheBoostBet, teams with a positive turnover differential and stronger adjusted EPA outperformed expectations — a trend to watch in high-leverage playoff environments.