Jaguars at Ravens Thursday Night Football Picks: Fade the Rookie in Baltimore

Matchup Preview

Baltimore hands the ball to Joe Fagnano tonight, an undrafted rookie making his first career start. Lamar Jackson is on IR with a right thumb injury, and Tyler Huntley is out with turf toe. Jacoby Brissett is coming from Arizona, but he stays inactive until the trade closes this weekend.

These teams are heading in opposite directions. Jacksonville is 5-2, leads the AFC South and just beat the Colts 42-7. Baltimore is 4-4, has lost three straight and sits 2-6 ATS, including 0-3 at home.

Fagnano is expected to start after practicing in an ankle brace. Trevor Lawrence isn't on the injury report, but RB Bhayshul Tuten (ankle) and DE Travon Walker (rib) are questionable. If Tuten sits, you'll likely see Chris Rodriguez Jr. take over or split the work.

The key matchup is Fagnano against a Jaguars defense allowing about 15.9 points per game, per Picks & Parlays. In relief at Buffalo, he went 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception. Expect Baltimore to lean on Derrick Henry and keep the rookie out of obvious passing downs.

M&T Bank Stadium is open-air, with kickoff temperatures near 67°F and wind around 3 to 5 mph. Rain is the wild card, with forecasts putting the kickoff chance anywhere between 0% and 59%. Make sure you check the radar before you lock in totals or passing props.

The Picks

Spread: Jaguars -9.5 (-108) at BetOnline, the cheapest price on the board. Covers has Jacksonville 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite, and Baltimore hasn't covered at home this season. The main risk is a late backdoor cover if Henry grinds the clock down.

Player Prop: Joe Fagnano Under 165.5 Passing Yards (-120) at BetOnline, 4 yards higher than the 161.5 at Bovada and Lucky Rebel. Fagnano threw for 91 yards on 21 attempts at Buffalo, and a Henry-first plan caps his volume. A Walker absence or garbage-time throws are the biggest threats to this Under.

Total: Under 39.5 (-107) at BetOnline, the best Under price available. Baltimore's team total sits at 16.5, so Jacksonville would need to carry most of the scoring. The Over has hit in 3 of the last 4 meetings, per CBS Sports, so this pick carries the most risk of the three.

Best Bet

Our strongest play is Joe Fagnano Under 165.5 passing yards (-120) at BetOnline, since a rookie in his first start faces a top-5 defense with a run-first plan.