Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Bears Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Caleb Williams and Baker Mayfield both won the Heisman under Lincoln Riley, and both went No. 1 overall. Chicago (6-2) plays its third straight primetime game after winning the first two. Tampa Bay (3-5) arrives on a two-game win streak after an 0-4 start.

Tampa is without OLB YaYa Diaby (knee), who had 3 sacks against Carolina in Week 7. WR Emeka Egbuka is officially questionable after full practices Thursday and Friday, and LT Tristan Wirfs should play through a toe injury. Chicago RB Kyle Monangai was reported ruled out after missing four straight games.

The big worry is Mayfield's right thumb. Since returning, he is 7-of-14 for 64 yards and a TD across two games (7-of-11 in Week 7, 0-for-3 in Week 8). That puts more weight on a Bucs run game that leads the NFL at 168.6 yards per game.

The problem is that both run defenses rank in the NFL's top four. That pushes Chicago's 387.3-yard offense, 3rd in the NFL, to win through the air. It faces a Bucs defense that ranks 3rd in total yards allowed (285.9 per game).

Tampa also ranks 5th in DVOA, eight spots ahead of Chicago, so the 3-5 record undersells this team. You can set weather aside: expect about 51°F, 0% chance of rain, and wind around 10 mph with gusts of 16-18 mph. Our read is a strength-on-strength grind, which points you toward the Bucs and the under.

The Picks

Pick 1: Buccaneers +6 (-105) at BetOnline

BetOnline has the best price on +6, and Everygame only offers +5.5, so make sure you get the full six. Tampa's top-four run defense should force Chicago to earn its yards through the air, and the DVOA gap favors the Bucs. The risk is Chicago's offense, which ranks 3rd in the NFL at 387.3 yards per game.

Pick 2: Under 47.5 (-110) at BetOnline

BetOnline's -110 is the best under price on 47.5, and both run defenses rank in the NFL's top four. Mayfield is 7-of-14 for 64 yards and a TD across two games (7-of-11 in Week 7, 0-for-3 in Week 8). The risk is Chicago's offense, which averages 26.8 points per game.

Pick 3: Baker Mayfield Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-113) at Lucky Rebel

Lucky Rebel's -113 beats Bovada's -115 on the same 210.5, a point above BetOnline and Everygame at 209.5. Back from his thumb injury, Mayfield is 7-of-14 for 64 yards and a TD across two games (7-of-11 in Week 7, 0-for-3 in Week 8). Tampa leans on a league-best run game, but if the Bucs fall behind early, his volume climbs, so size this one smaller.

Best Bet

Our best bet is Buccaneers +6 (-105) at BetOnline, because Tampa's elite run defense and top-five DVOA ranking fit a close, low-scoring game.