Monday Night Football: Bills vs. Vikings Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

It's the best offense in the league against the best defense, and both teams are 6-1. Buffalo leads the NFL at 33.3 points per game and has won three straight, the latest a 36-10 rout of Baltimore. Minnesota allows a league-low 13.3 points per game but is coming off its first loss, 19-15 in Detroit. Folks are calling this a Super Bowl preview, and with the trade deadline at 3 p.m. CT Tuesday, both front offices will be watching closely.

The biggest news is under center for Minnesota. Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring injury, so Carson Wentz starts. WR Jauan Jennings (calf) and RB Demond Claiborne (knee) are also out. The Vikings offense was already averaging only about 20 points per game, and Minnesota has gone under the total in six of its seven games. Wentz will throw downfield more than Murray, but he gives you none of Murray's ability to extend plays, and his targets come down to Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

Buffalo's problems are up front. LT Dion Dawkins (ribs) missed practice all week, and LG Alec Anderson (ankle) is also questionable. That's a bad combination against Brian Flores, who loves to blitz and will send pressure straight at a weakened left side. WR Joshua Palmer is out too. Minnesota's pass defense ranks No. 1 in opponent passer rating (64.9), completion rate allowed (56.2%) and passing touchdowns allowed (four), so Josh Allen won't have an easy night in the air.

That makes James Cook the key player. The best way to beat this secondary is on the ground, Minnesota's run defense tends to fade late in games, and Buffalo is happy to use heavy personnel. It's a dome at U.S. Bank Stadium, so weather won't play a part. Expect Buffalo to win by grinding out the clock, with a fill-in quarterback on the other side who can't keep up.

The Picks

Pick 1: Under 45.5 (-110) at Bovada

Minnesota is 1-6 to the over this season, and that was with Murray at quarterback. With Wentz starting, Jennings out and a defense allowing 13.3 points per game, the Vikings struggle to get into the 20s. Buffalo's banged-up left side against Flores's blitzes should stall some drives too. Bovada has the best under price on 45.5.

Pick 2: Carson Wentz Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Wentz is stepping in midweek without his No. 3 receiver and with Claiborne out of the backfield. If Buffalo gets ahead, Minnesota's best path is to lean on Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones and shorten the game rather than put the ball in the air 40 times. Bovada's 215.5 is five yards higher than BetOnline's 210.5, which makes it the clear best number for the under.

Pick 3: James Cook Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetOnline

Minnesota leads the league in nearly every pass-defense category, so Buffalo's plan should be to run the ball. The Vikings' run defense wears down late, and if the Bills are protecting a lead in the fourth quarter, Cook gets the carries. BetOnline's 82.5 is four yards lower than the 86.5 at Bovada and Lucky Rebel.

Best Bet

Our best bet is the Under 45.5 (-110) at Bovada. Minnesota has gone under in six of seven games, and now it's starting a backup quarterback against an offense likely to run the clock.