Thursday Night Football: Panthers vs. Packers Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Green Bay gets its revenge shot after Carolina's 16-13 upset at Lambeau last November as a 13-point underdog. Both teams arrive off division losses on a short week: Green Bay fell 20-17 at Detroit, and Carolina lost 43-13 to Tampa Bay. Expect another grind, and the market agrees, with the total dropping to 47 and 46.5 after opening at 47.5.

Green Bay (4-3) sits fourth in the NFC North, while Carolina (3-3) still leads the NFC South. The Panthers are without LG Damien Lewis, OLB Jaelan Phillips, and CB Akayleb Evans, which thins out their pass rush and secondary. The Packers have ruled out C Sean Rhyan, RG Travis Glover, and LB Zaire Franklin, while WR Matthew Golden and CB Keisean Nixon are questionable.

Green Bay's offense leads the NFL with 33 plays of 20+ yards, but both defenses take away the deep ball. The Packers have allowed four completions of 20+ air yards (tied for fewest) and the Panthers just five. That points Green Bay toward the ground, where Carolina allows a league-high 153.2 rushing yards per game.

Finishing drives is Green Bay's other problem. The Packers score touchdowns on just 46.2% of red-zone trips, and kicker Trey Smack missed from 26 and 35 yards at Detroit. The trends lean low too: Green Bay is 2-5 O/U this season, and Carolina's last six road games all finished under 40 points.

Weather shouldn't matter. The kickoff forecast calls for 53-56°F, mostly clear skies, and a 4-7 mph wind, so you can handicap this one on football alone.

The Picks

Pick 1: Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline

Green Bay's last four games averaged 35.5 combined points, and Carolina's last six road games all stayed under 40. Both defenses limit deep shots, Green Bay is down two interior linemen, and the Packers score TDs on just 46.2% of red-zone trips. At 47, you get a half-point more than the 46.5 posted at Bovada, Lucky Rebel, and VoltageBet.

Pick 2: Panthers +3.5 (-105) at Bovada

Carolina has covered 13 straight games after an outright loss, and it won outright at Lambeau last year. With a total this low, the hook over a field goal matters, and Green Bay's patched-up interior line makes separation harder. Bovada's -105 is the cheapest price on Carolina +3.5, while other books charge -108 to -116.

Pick 3: Josh Jacobs Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-125) at BetOnline

Carolina allows a league-high 153.2 rushing yards per game, and Tampa Bay just ran for 258 on them. Jacobs is fresh with only one game back from the commissioner's exempt list, and Carolina is without edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. BetOnline is the only book we found with props posted, and you're laying -125, so size this one accordingly.

Best Bet

The Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline is our best bet: it's the top Under number available, and both defenses take away deep shots.