Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Bears Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, two of the top quarterbacks from the 2024 draft class, meet at Soldier Field at 8:15 PM ET. Both teams are 4-2 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. Maye has thrown 10 TD passes during New England's three-game win streak, and Williams is back after missing three games with a hamstring injury.

Williams looked sharp in his return at Atlanta, going 30/36 for 305 yards with a 111.2 rating. The injury report tilts this game toward Chicago. New England is without both starting guards, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown, and right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable.

The Patriots secondary is just as thin. Three cornerbacks are out, including Carlton Davis III, and both starting safeties, Kevin Byard III and Craig Woodson, are questionable. Chicago has holes too: RB Kyle Monangai is out for a third straight game, and LB T.J. Edwards is doubtful.

The key matchup is Chicago's pass rush against New England's patched-up line. The Bears rank 5th in the NFL with 17 sacks, and Walter Rouse makes his first NFL start at left guard. Maye saw plenty of clean pockets against the Jets, but you should expect a tougher test on a short week.

Weather won't change how you bet this one. Expect about 59°F at kickoff with light wind and clear skies, and Sharp Football rates the impact 1 of 5.

The Picks

Spread: Bears -3 (-105) at Bovada

The two biggest edges in this game both favor Chicago: its pass rush against backup guards, and Williams against a secondary missing three corners. New England also ranks 30th in turnover differential at -6. The risk is a push at exactly 3, and the Bears turned it over five times at Green Bay in Week 5.

Player Prop: Caleb Williams Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Williams threw for 305 yards in his return and leads the NFL with a 72.5% completion rate. He now faces a Patriots secondary with three cornerbacks out and both starting safeties questionable. Atlanta sacked him four times, but he went 24/24 from a clean pocket, and New England's 14 sacks rank 18th.

Player Prop: Drake Maye Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Maye throws behind backup guards on both sides, with five interior linemen who have started this season unavailable. Chicago's pass rush ranks 5th in sacks, and Covers notes Maye's recent run came against softer defenses. The risk is a Bears pass defense that allowed 367 passing yards to Green Bay in Week 5.

Best Bet

Our best bet is Bears -3 (-105) at Bovada, because Chicago's pass rush and passing game line up against New England's two thinnest units.