Sunday Night Football: Chiefs vs. Seahawks Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

The AFC's only unbeaten team visits the defending champs on Sunday night. It's 5-0 against 3-3, and the first meeting of a 5-0 or better team and the reigning Super Bowl champ since 2009. Then there's Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl LX MVP in Seattle, returning to Lumen Field in a Chiefs uniform.

Walker says this isn't a revenge game. His numbers talk anyway: an NFL-high 665 rushing yards, 6.3 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns in 5 games. Seattle needs this one, having lost 3 of its last 4 by 3 points or fewer to fall 3 games behind the 49ers.

Both teams are banged up where it hurts. Kansas City is without both starting tackles, Josh Simmons (IR) and Jaylon Moore (concussion), plus WR Rashee Rice. Seattle is without RB1 Zach Charbonnet, and edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu and Connor O'Toole are all questionable.

This game turns on Seattle's pass rush against Kansas City's backup tackles. Seattle allows a league-low 5.2-5.3 yards per pass attempt and leads ESPN's pass-rush win rate. It blitzes on fewer than 24% of dropbacks, and with Rice out, Mahomes leans on Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce.

Expect a damp night at Lumen Field. Rain falls through the afternoon and should taper toward kickoff, with temperatures around 50°F and wind at 5 mph or less. A wet ball and slick footing favor two defenses that each allow about 1.5 points per drive.

The Picks

Pick 1: Chiefs +3 (-112) at Lucky Rebel

Three is the key number, and Lucky Rebel gives you the cheapest price on it. Seattle's last three losses were all by 3 points or fewer, and Reid and Mahomes are 10-1-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2017. The red flag is Kansas City's 1-7 ATS mark in its last 8 road games.

Pick 2: Under 43 (-110) at BetOnline

BetOnline gives you the best Under price at 43, a half point above three other books. Rain, Seattle's elite pass defense and Kansas City's missing tackles all point to long, grinding drives. Seattle won't bail out the Over either, with a bottom-tier run game and Sam Darnold's 37.9 passer rating under pressure.

Pick 3: Kenneth Walker III Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetOnline

Make sure you take this at BetOnline, a full yard above the 79.5 at Bovada and Lucky Rebel. Seattle allows 3.5 yards per carry, ranks 1st in defensive rushing EPA and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games. Walker has topped 100 in 4 of 5 games, but this time he's running behind two backup tackles.

Best Bet

Chiefs +3 (-112) at Lucky Rebel is our best bet: the better team plus the key number in a field-goal game.