Thursday Night Football: Seahawks vs. Broncos Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

The defending Super Bowl champions visit Mile High on Thursday night, and both teams come in at 3-2. Seattle lost a physical game 32-29 to San Francisco and now has to play at 5,280 feet on a short week. It's a tough spot, but Seattle is still a 2.5-point road favorite, and the injury report explains why.

Denver's secondary is in rough shape. Per the Broncos' injury report, CB Pat Surtain II and S Talanoa Hufanga are out with ankle injuries, and CB Riley Moss (ribs) is questionable. If Moss sits, Denver plays without its top two corners and its best safety.

Seattle has holes too. RB Zach Charbonnet (knee) and LB Drake Thomas (ankle) are ruled out, and with Jadarian Price on IR, Emanuel Wilson carries the backfield. Per the official Seahawks report, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) was limited Monday and Tuesday on estimated reports, then full Wednesday with no game status.

The matchup that decides this game is Seattle's passing attack against that gutted secondary. JSN has 583 receiving yards and posted 102 yards and a touchdown last week after getting hurt in the same game. No opposing QB has reached 200 passing yards against Seattle, per Covers and Pro Football Reference, and Bo Nix threw for 123 last week.

Weather is mostly a kicking concern. FootballDB has about 51°F at kickoff, and the National Weather Service calls for mostly clear skies with a 5-7 mph north wind. Denver7 warns of gusts up to 45 mph through early evening, so watch the wind on long field goals early.

The Picks

Pick 1: Seahawks -2.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Seattle allows the fewest yards per pass attempt in football, per Covers, and ranks first in net yards per attempt allowed at Pro Football Reference. Denver's pass rush is the main risk, but Covers has Seattle 9-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Every book we checked has -2.5, and BetOnline's -110 beats the -112 to -116 you'll pay elsewhere.

Pick 2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD, EVEN (+100) at Lucky Rebel

With Charbonnet and Price out, Seattle can't lean on the run, so its scoring chances should go through JSN against a depleted secondary. He scored last week while playing through the ankle injury, and he carries no designation tonight. Lucky Rebel pays even money, while BetOnline asks you to lay -115 for the same bet.

Pick 3: Bo Nix Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Lucky Rebel

Nix threw for 123 at the Chargers, 214 at the 49ers and 186 against the Rams over his last three games. Per Covers and Pro Football Reference, no QB has reached 200 against Seattle, though Nix is 7-2 in primetime. Lucky Rebel has the best price; Bovada has the same number at -130, and BetOnline moves it to 200.5 at -125.

Best Bet

Our best bet is Seahawks -2.5 (-110) at BetOnline: Seattle's passing game faces a gutted Denver secondary, and no book has a cheaper price.