Sunday Night Football: Cowboys vs. Packers Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

The Dallas Cowboys (2-3) visit the Green Bay Packers (3-2) in the first meeting since last season's 40-40 tie. Dallas hasn't beaten Green Bay since 2016, and a loss tonight drops the Cowboys to 2-4. The Micah Parsons revenge game is on hold, with Parsons still recovering from a torn ACL.

Green Bay has won two straight, including a 31-7 rout of Chicago, but the defense is shorthanded. DTs Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford are out, DL Jordon Riley is doubtful, and LB Edgerrin Cooper is done for the season. Guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk and starting CB Brandon Cisse are all questionable.

Dallas is coming off a 24-16 home loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team and has dropped two of three. CeeDee Lamb and G Tyler Smith carry no injury designation, so the offense is intact. The secondary is not: CB Cobie Durant is out, and Joey Porter Jr. and Ameer Speed are questionable.

The key matchup is the Dallas offense, 4th in success rate and 5th in EPA per play (RBSDM via Covers), against Green Bay's thin interior. Only three healthy Packers defensive tackles are certain to play. Green Bay's edge is through the air, where the league's 4th-most explosive offense meets a Dallas pass defense Covers calls 'notably soft.'

Expect dry, mostly clear skies for the 8:20 PM ET kickoff on NBC, with temperatures near 55-60°F falling to about 50°F late. SW winds of 10-20 mph could gust near 25 mph in the first half, which may affect deep shots and kicks early. The wind eases as the game goes on, so you shouldn't expect a major hit to either passing game.

The Picks

Pick 1: Over 53.5 (-112) at VoltageBet

Dallas is 4-1 to the over, ranks top five in offensive success rate and EPA, and faces a Green Bay line without Hargrave and Ford. Green Bay has scored 40+ in both of Jordan Love's career games against Dallas, and the early wind should ease as the night goes on. VoltageBet has the best over price, and 53.5 beats the 54 posted at Bovada and Lucky Rebel.

Pick 2: Cowboys +1 (-115) at VoltageBet

The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven Cowboys-Packers meetings, and Dallas is 2-0 ATS as a dog this season. Lamb and Tyler Smith are healthy, so Dallas brings its full offense into a game the market can't separate. Books are split on the favorite, and VoltageBet is the only one giving you a point with Dallas.

Pick 3: Javonte Williams Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Green Bay's interior line is badly depleted, with Hargrave and Ford out and Riley doubtful. Parsons isn't back and Cooper is out for the season, leaving fewer playmakers to slow the Dallas run game. Lucky Rebel matches the price, but make sure you check final inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Best Bet

The Over 53.5 (-112) at VoltageBet is our best bet: Dallas' top-five offense faces a depleted Packers front, and the wind eases late.