Monday Night Football: Commanders vs. 49ers Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

The undefeated 49ers (5-0) host a Washington team that limps into Levi's Stadium at 1-3-1, fresh off a 27-27 tie with the Giants and riding a six-game primetime losing streak. San Francisco is 4-1 against the spread with the league's best average cover margin, and Brock Purdy leads the NFL in QBR. Washington needs this one far more than San Francisco does, and the roster isn't built to win it right now.

Start with the Commanders' injury report: 13 names, four of them out. The big loss is RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin), the team's leading rusher, which leaves a limited Rachaad White (shoulder) and Austin Ekeler (chest) to carry a run-first offense. Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable, and with a bye coming next week, Washington has every reason to hold him out. Terry McLaurin plays, but he's been fighting a hamstring injury too. Three safeties—Percy Butler, Tyler Owens and Nick Cross—are questionable after all three missed Week 5.

San Francisco is banged up too. Nick Bosa (calf/knee) is out for a third straight game, Dre Greenlaw is serving a one-game suspension, Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is expected to sit, and Mike Evans is questionable with rib and Achilles problems. That thins the pass rush and the receiver room, but it pushes even more of the offense to George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Those are exactly the players a depleted Washington safety group can't handle.

The key matchup is Jayden Daniels against this defense. Since returning from a dislocated elbow, Daniels hasn't reached 200 passing yards in any of his three starts, and he took five sacks against New York. San Francisco ranks third in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed. Even without Bosa, a Washington offense with no lead back and a hobbled receiver corps should have trouble sustaining drives.

The weather adds to that. Kickoff is forecast at 68 degrees with almost no chance of rain, but winds are expected around 12 mph with gusts up to 20. Against a total sitting at 52, that pushes us toward the under.

The Picks

Pick 1: Jayden Daniels Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Bovada hangs the highest number on the board (Lucky Rebel has 210.5), and Daniels has stayed under 200 in every start since the elbow injury. Diggs is questionable, McLaurin is playing hurt, and Washington's offense has leaned on the run because the passing game hasn't worked. Gusty wind and a bad night for White and Ekeler on the ground make 212 a tall order.

Pick 2: Under 52 (-110) at Bovada

Bovada and Lucky Rebel both deal the under at -110, the cheapest price at 52. Washington is missing its lead back, its WR2 is questionable and its quarterback hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game; the 49ers' WR room is also depleted. Add 20 mph gusts and a likely second half of SF running clock, and 52 looks inflated.

Pick 3: 49ers -7 (-114) at BetOnline

Most of the market sits at -7.5, but BetOnline still has -7 at -114, so a 49ers win by exactly seven is a push instead of a loss. San Francisco beats teams by an average of 12.2 points, is 3-0 at home, and gets a Washington team on a cross-country trip that's 0-2 on the road and has lost six straight in primetime. Without Croskey-Merritt, the Commanders don't have the ground game to keep up.

Best Bet

Our best bet is Jayden Daniels Under 211.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada: he hasn't reached 200 yards since coming back from the elbow injury, and tonight he faces a top-three scoring defense in the wind without his full receiving corps.