Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Tampa Bay walks into AT&T Stadium at 0-4. The Bucs are the last winless team in the NFC, they're without Baker Mayfield again, and they're one loss away from their third 0-5 start this century. Dallas is 2-2 and riding a 34-30 comeback win in Houston, where CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards and the winning touchdown with 40 seconds left. The market has priced this as a mismatch, with Dallas laying 8.5 to 9.5 depending on the book. That number is the most interesting thing about this game.

Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels gets his second start and his first on the road. His debut against Green Bay showed both sides of him: 19-of-27 for 148 yards and a touchdown, 55 rushing yards (a Bucs record for a rookie quarterback), and two interceptions that handed the Packers 10 points in a 17-14 loss. Tampa's secondary is short-handed too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib) and cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) are both out. Rueben Bain Jr. is back off the edge, and kicker Chase McLaughlin, who is 9-for-9 on field goals, is cleared to play.

The key matchup is Tampa's run game against a Dallas defense that can't stop it. The Cowboys rank 31st against the run, allow 4.8 yards per carry, and are dead last in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. They also have zero interceptions and only four sacks through four games. Dallas is down linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, cornerback Cobie Durant and tackle Drew Shelton, and left guard Tyler Smith is questionable for what would be his season debut. Expect Tampa to keep it on the ground with Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker and Daniels's legs, shorten the game, and protect the rookie.

The other side is just as clear. Dallas leads the NFL in scoring at 30.5 points per game and has scored 30 or more three weeks running. Tampa ranks last in pressure rate despite blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the league, which means clean pockets for Dak Prescott and isolated coverage on Lamb against a secondary missing two starters. Dallas should win. The bigger question is whether a Cowboys team playing its third game in 11 days, with a defense that gives up 28 points a game, can pull away from a Bucs team whose last 10 games have all been decided by one score. The game is indoors, so weather isn't a factor.

The Picks

Pick 1: Jalon Daniels Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best number: Bovada at -115 (Lucky Rebel has -117).
Daniels ran for 55 yards in his first start, and now he faces the defense that's worst in the league against quarterback runs. Dallas has struggled with contain, and Tampa's game plan is built on Daniels using his legs instead of forcing throws downfield. Scrambles away from a blitz-heavy plan and a few designed keepers should get him past this number by the third quarter.

Pick 2: Buccaneers +9.5 (-112)
Best number: Lucky Rebel at +9.5 (-112). Everygame is down to +8.5 and BetOnline to +9, so get the extra half point.
Ten straight Tampa games have finished within one score, and Dallas's defense is giving up 28 points a game. A run-first Bucs offense keeps the clock moving, McLaughlin turns stalled drives into points, and a Cowboys team on a short week has trouble building a lead it can hold. Dallas probably wins, but a 10-point margin asks a lot of a defense this leaky.

Pick 3: CeeDee Lamb Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Best number: Lucky Rebel at -113 (Bovada has -115).
Lamb is coming off 21 targets, and the secondary he faces is missing Winfield and Morrison. Tampa can't get home with its blitz, so Prescott will have time to work Lamb on intermediate routes. Even if Dallas plays with a lead, Lamb gets enough volume early to clear 85.5 before the Cowboys start running out the clock.

Best Bet

Best Bet: Jalon Daniels Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada. It's the clearest matchup edge on the board: a rookie QB whose game is built on his legs against the league's worst defense at stopping quarterback runs.