Sunday Night Football: Ravens vs. Falcons Picks and Preview
Matchup Preview
Lamar Jackson is out, and that changes everything about this Sunday night. The two-time MVP sprained his ankle on the last play of the first half against Tennessee, sat out every practice this week, and was ruled out Friday. Tyler Huntley makes the start for Baltimore (3-1) in Atlanta, and the market has already reacted: the Falcons went from underdogs to a field-goal-plus favorite, and they deserve to be.
Atlanta (2-2) is a different team with Michael Penix Jr. under center. After scoring 16 points total in two losses to open the year, the Falcons have put up 80 in two straight road blowouts at Green Bay and New Orleans. Penix is completing 73.3% of his passes in his return from the ACL injury, but the engine is the ground game: Atlanta runs for 181 yards per game, second in the league, and Bijan Robinson has 339 rushing yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks alone. Tonight is Penix's first home start of the season, in a dome, in prime time.
Baltimore's injury list goes well beyond the quarterback. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and center Cam Jurgens are both out, guard Andrew Vorhees is questionable, and so are WR1 Zay Flowers (foot) and CB1 Marlon Humphrey (hamstring/calf). So the Ravens are missing their best pass rusher against the league's hottest run game, and starting a backup quarterback behind a rebuilt interior line. Huntley went 8-of-9 in relief last week, but Baltimore was outscored 11-0 in that second half and nearly gave away a 24-7 lead.
The matchup that decides this game: Atlanta has played the best run defense in the league so far, so it can sell out against Derrick Henry and make Huntley beat it from the pocket. If the Falcons get that, they should control the clock with Bijan and Brian Robinson. Kevin Stefanski also spent years game-planning against Baltimore in Cleveland, so the scheme won't surprise him. With the roof closed at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, weather is a non-factor. This one comes down to talent and health, and Atlanta has the edge in both tonight.
The Picks
Pick 1: Falcons -3.5 (EVEN) at Bovada
Bovada is dealing Atlanta -3.5 at even money, which beats paying -117 for -3 elsewhere. A backup quarterback, a rebuilt interior line and no Hendrickson is a lot to overcome on the road against an offense that has won its last two games by 20-plus. If Atlanta's run defense holds up against Henry, Baltimore has no reliable way to score, and the Falcons win by more than a field goal.
Pick 2: Bijan Robinson Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at Lucky Rebel
Robinson is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has 339 yards in two games since Penix came back. Baltimore is down its top edge rusher, and if Atlanta goes up early, the game script means a heavy workload for its best player. Lucky Rebel has the best price at -113.
Pick 3: Tyler Huntley Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at Lucky Rebel
Huntley's legs are his best weapon, and Baltimore will lean on designed runs and scrambles rather than ask him to win from the pocket. Atlanta's front is built to stop Henry, which pushes more of the rushing work to the quarterback, and behind a shaky interior line, broken plays will turn into scrambles. Thirty yards is a low bar for a mobile starter who should be under pressure all night.
Best Bet
Our best bet is Bijan Robinson Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at Lucky Rebel: the league's hottest back faces a Ravens front without Trey Hendrickson, and the game script should keep him carrying the ball into the fourth quarter.