Monday Night Football: Bills vs. Rams Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Week 5 closes with a heavyweight bout at SoFi Stadium. The Bills and Rams entered the week first and second on the Super Bowl odds board, and the matchup puts reigning MVP Matthew Stafford across from current MVP favorite Josh Allen. The market has moved hard toward Los Angeles: the Rams opened -2.5 with a 53.5 total, and every offshore book now sits at Rams -3.5, with the total at 54.5 to 55. That's the first time all season Buffalo has been an underdog. We think the market has pushed the Rams one hook too far.

Buffalo (3-1) leads the NFL at 31.8 points per game and converts 53.3% of its third downs, also best in the league. The Bills lost 29-26 at home to New England last week on a late Drake Maye touchdown, but the offense isn't the problem. The defense is: Buffalo allows 26.8 points per game, and it will be without DL Ed Oliver (knee). Slot CB Dee Alford (ankle) is questionable. WR Joshua Palmer (shoulder) is out and DJ Moore (shoulder) is questionable, so Allen's outside options are thin. Expect a heavy dose of Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Allen's legs.

Los Angeles (2-2) has alternated wins and losses all year. Week 4's 24-20 comeback in Philadelphia hid some ugly play. Stafford threw 50-plus passes for 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and the special teams gave up a 41-yard punt return and missed a 48-yard field goal. The Rams are 1-3 against the spread this season. On the plus side, Aaron Donald (back), CB Jaylen Watson (shoulder), and TE Colby Parkinson all come off the injury report. Only S Quentin Lake (hip) is questionable.

The key on-field matchup is strength against strength. Buffalo averages 8.3 yards per pass attempt (2nd), and the Rams allow 4.6 (1st), plus a league-low 145.5 passing yards per game. But that defense has forced just 3 takeaways (27th) and has only 7 sacks (24th). It keeps plays in front of it more than it wrecks drives. On the other side, Oliver's absence opens the interior for Kyren Williams, who averages 5.4 yards per carry and scored twice in the fourth quarter last week. The roof at SoFi takes weather out of the equation.

The Picks

Pick 1: Bills +3.5 (-115) at BetOnline

Every book is on +3.5, but BetOnline has the cheapest juice at -115 (Bovada, Lucky Rebel, and VoltageBet are all -120). The Rams are 1-3 ATS and 1-2 ATS when laying 3.5 or more, while Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings. The Rams defense doesn't force turnovers, so Allen should be able to keep this within a field goal, and a backdoor cover is in play if Rams special teams struggle again.

Pick 2: Kyren Williams Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bovada

Bovada has the best price on the Over at -110 (Lucky Rebel is -117). Williams has 294 yards on 54 carries this season (5.4 YPC), and without Ed Oliver, Buffalo loses its best interior run defender. If McVay's Rams take a lead, they'll lean on Williams to keep Allen on the sideline, so 70 yards is a reasonable target.

Pick 3: Under 55 (-110) at BetOnline

If you're betting the Under, take 55 rather than 54.5. BetOnline offers 55 at -110, better juice than Bovada (-115) or Lucky Rebel (-112). Rams games this year have averaged 46.0 combined points, 9 below this number. The Under has also hit in LA's last two home games, and the Rams' top-ranked pass defense limits Buffalo's biggest strength. The total climbed 1.5 points on public Over money, and that move has created value on the Under.

Best Bet

Our best bet is Bills +3.5 (-115) at BetOnline. The line moved past the key number of 3 toward a Rams team that is 1-3 ATS and forces few turnovers, and getting the hook with the best price on the board makes Buffalo the clear value.