Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Browns Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Our Steelers vs. Browns picks start with the stakes: a share of first place in the AFC North. Both teams are 2-1 straight up and against the spread heading into the 8:15 PM ET kickoff at Huntington Bank Field. Cleveland has won its last two games as an underdog, and this spot sets up for a third.

The Steelers are banged up where it hurts. Rico Dowdle (toe) is out again, so Jaylen Warren carries the backfield after Pittsburgh ran for 6.0 yards per carry against Cincinnati. In the secondary, Joey Porter Jr. is listed out and Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a broken wrist after limited practices all week.

Cleveland has its own holes up front. Center Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and guard Teven Jenkins (back) are both out, so Luke Wypler starts at center against T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh front. You should expect interior pressure on Deshaun Watson, who has thrown two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.

The other trench battle favors the Browns. Myles Garrett and Mason Graham get a crack at an aging, less mobile Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers sits near the bottom of the league in EPA per play, completion percentage over expected and success rate, per Fantasy Life.

Weather should be a minor factor at kickoff, with about 77°F, cloudy skies and a south wind near 9 mph. The bigger issue comes late. Rain chances climb to 20% at 10 PM and 44% at 11 PM as a cold front moves in.

The Picks

All three bets use Bovada prices. Make sure you bet only what you can afford to lose.

Spread: Browns +2.5 (EVEN) at Bovada

You get the points at even money, while the Steelers side costs -120. Watson has been efficient for two straight weeks and now faces a secondary without Porter and possibly Ramsey. Pittsburgh has also never won a Thursday night game in Cleveland.

Total: Under 37.5 (-110) at Bovada

The market has already pushed this total down from 40.5, and both offensive lines are missing key pieces. Pittsburgh ranked last in offensive EPA per play through two weeks, and late rain could slow both offenses further. Shop note: BetOnline posts 38.5 per a secondary report with no price published, so be sure to check for the extra point.

Player prop: Aaron Rodgers Under 206.5 Passing Yards (+110) at Bovada

Garrett and Graham give Cleveland the edge against a less mobile quarterback. With Warren carrying the load and Denzel Ward plus a returning Tyson Campbell in coverage, Pittsburgh has reasons to lean on the run. You also get plus money on the under.

Best Bet

Our strongest play is Browns +2.5 (EVEN) at Bovada, a home underdog at even money against a Steelers secondary missing Porter and possibly Ramsey.