Monday Night Football: Falcons vs. Saints Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Two 1-2 NFC South rivals kick off at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN, and the winner climbs back to .500. Atlanta has won the last two meetings, including a 19-17 win on Jan. 4, 2026. Kaden Elliss, who spent three years in Atlanta, is out and misses his shot at his former team.

Neither team has been consistent. Atlanta got blown out 34-3 by Carolina, then won 35-14 at Green Bay as Bijan Robinson earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week. New Orleans upset Baltimore 24-17 on the road, then lost 35-27 at home to Las Vegas after four turnovers.

Atlanta is close to full strength: Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson and Drake London are healthy, with linebacker Divine Deablo, end Samson Ebukam and linebacker Yasir Abdullah (illness) questionable. New Orleans is missing Elliss plus edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, and linebacker Pete Werner and tight end Noah Fant are questionable. On offense, left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is out for the season with Asim Richards replacing him, and Travis Etienne Jr. is on IR.

The matchup that matters is Bijan Robinson against a gutted Saints front. Robinson entered the week leading the NFL with 467 scrimmage yards at 5.3 yards per carry. New Orleans already allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate at 15.3%, and now it's missing three front-seven starters.

Flip it, and Atlanta's run defense allows the fewest rushing yards in the league, about 3.1 yards per carry. The Saints' ground game won't find room against that front, and Etienne is on IR, so expect them to be one-dimensional. Tyler Shough (917 yards, 8 TD) and Chris Olave can move the ball, since two Packers receivers hung 196 yards on this secondary in Week 3.

The Picks

These lines were pulled Monday afternoon and can move before kickoff, so check your book before you bet. The game is under the Caesars Superdome roof, so weather won't factor in. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Pick 1: Falcons Moneyline (EVEN) at Bovada. Lucky Rebel also deals EVEN, while BetOnline, Everygame and Voltage Bet sit at -102.

Atlanta's run defense takes away the Saints' weakest phase, while New Orleans' depleted front can't slow Atlanta's best one. At even money, you're backing the healthier roster against a team that just committed four turnovers. The risk is volatility: this same offense managed three points against Carolina in Week 2.

Pick 2: Bijan Robinson Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada. Lucky Rebel is at -117 and BetOnline at -120.

Robinson averages 5.3 yards per carry, and the Saints give up explosive runs at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Las Vegas running backs ran for 110 yards on 24 carries in the Superdome in Week 3, and this front is now missing three starters. Bovada's -115 is the cheapest price on the shared 87.5 number.

Pick 3: Drake London Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetOnline. Bovada and Lucky Rebel hang 81.5.

With Granderson and Jennings out, the Saints are down two edge rushers, so Penix should have time to throw. London is his healthy WR1, and BetOnline's 78.5 gives you three yards of cushion over the 81.5 elsewhere.

Best Bet

Our best bet is Bijan Robinson Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada, because the NFL's scrimmage-yards leader faces a Saints front missing three starters.