Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Packers Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

Green Bay's home opener finally lands in Week 3, and it comes with a plot twist: Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for Atlanta after tearing his ACL last November. That single lineup change dragged this line from an opening Packers -6.5/-7 all the way down to -5 at Bovada, because the market believes almost anything is an upgrade over what the Falcons ran out in their first two weeks. Atlanta is 0-2, scored just 16 points across two games, and got run off its own field 34-3 by Carolina. The bar could not be lower.

Green Bay is 1-1 but far from a machine. Jordan Love is completing barely 52% of his throws, the offense leaned on a fourth-quarter rally just to escape the Jets 20-17 in overtime, and he's now operating behind a patched-up offensive line with starting guard Aaron Banks ruled out. Josh Jacobs is off the field entirely, leaving a committee of Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and rookie Kaleb Johnson that lacks a true difference-maker. This is a top-heavy passing team, not a balanced one.

The cleanest edge on the board is Green Bay's receivers against a gutted Atlanta secondary. Christian Watson already has four touchdowns through two weeks and Matthew Golden is emerging fast, while the Falcons lost No. 1 corner A.J. Terrell to injured reserve and have been getting carved up through the air. If Love has time, that's where the damage gets done. Atlanta's counter is Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 18-plus carries and functions as the entire offense on the ground and out of the backfield.

Weather is a non-factor: dry skies, temperatures in the 50s and light winds at Lambeau, so no wind or precipitation to knock down the passing games. What should keep the total in check instead is the simple reality that two bottom-tier offenses are meeting on a short week, four days removed from ugly performances. Expect a grind, not a shootout — the Under has already cashed in both Atlanta games this season.

The Picks

Pick 1 — Falcons +5.0 (-110), Bovada. This game opened as high as Packers -7.5 and has bled down to -5 since Penix was named the starter, and there's history behind the move: 0-2 straight-up-and-ATS dogs are 30-12 ATS in Week 3 since 2015. Green Bay's short-handed, low-volume offense doesn't profile as a team that blows anyone out, and the Falcons' defense actually held Carolina to 3-of-6 in the red zone. Five points with a quarterback upgrade and a live run game is too many.

Pick 2 — Under 43.0 (-110), Bovada. Both offenses sit near the bottom of the league in EPA per play, and now they're playing on a compressed Thursday turnaround with no time to fix anything. The Under has hit in both Falcons games, Penix is knocking off a full year of rust, and Love's low-completion, low-volume start doesn't scream fireworks. A mild, dry Lambeau night removes the only variable that usually inflates these numbers.

Pick 3 — Christian Watson Anytime TD (+145), Bovada. Watson has found the end zone four times in two games and now draws an Atlanta secondary missing A.J. Terrell, its best cover man. With Jayden Reed also out, Watson's target share should climb, and he's Green Bay's clear red-zone and big-play threat. Plus-money on a receiver this involved against this coverage is strong value.

Best Bet

The best bet is Falcons +5.0 (-110) at Bovada — the market has already conceded ground on the Penix news, the historical 0-2 dog angle is overwhelming, and Green Bay simply isn't built to bury anyone right now.