Thursday Night Football: Commanders vs. Giants Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

A month ago these two played to a 27-27 tie in Washington. In overtime, clock mismanagement took away the Commanders' shot at a game-winning field goal, and Jayden Daniels put the blame on himself. The rematch is at MetLife Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, and the stakes aren't even. Washington is 2-5-1 and calls this a must-win. A loss drops them four games back with the Giants holding the tiebreaker, and there's chatter about Dan Quinn's job. The 5-2-1 Giants lead the NFC East and would be the NFC's No. 3 seed if the season ended today. In John Harbaugh's first year, they're chasing their first division title since 2011.

New York has earned its spot. The Giants are 6-2 against the spread, and their wins over the Texans (27-21) and Eagles (19-11) came before last week's 34-27 loss in New Orleans. J.J. McCarthy hurt his hip in that game but practiced fully and is expected to start. Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and both starting tackles were also full participants. The only Giant with a game designation is LB Malik Harrison (Questionable). Washington split its last three, losing 23-17 to the 49ers, beating the Eagles 27-10 and losing 20-13 to the Rams. It also comes in short-handed up front: starting center Lucas Patrick (concussion) and TE Colson Yankoff (knee) are out.

This game comes down to the Giants' defense against Daniels. New York ranks fifth in yards allowed and forces a three-and-out on 34.8% of opponent drives, the best rate since at least 2016. The Giants blitzed Daniels on 62% of his dropbacks in the first meeting. Now they get to do it against a backup center. Rookie LB Arvell Reese just had 12 tackles and three sacks. Daniels ran for 103 yards and two scores in Week 5 but has only 49 rushing yards over his last three starts. On the other side, Washington's pass defense ranks among the league's bottom five. Nabers caught 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets against it last month.

The weather may matter as much as any of that. The National Weather Service has a 90% chance of showers in East Rutherford tonight, with north winds of 9-15 mph gusting to 25 and temperatures in the 40s. The total has already come down, and it still isn't low enough.

The Picks

Pick 1: Under 41 (-110) at BetOnline
Every book except VoltageBet (40.5) is dealing 41, and BetOnline's -110 is the cheapest Under price available. Steady rain and 25 mph gusts work against the passing game. Add the league's best three-and-out defense facing a Washington line without its starting center, and drives are going to stall. Expect a field-position game that grinds well short of the 54 points from the first meeting.

Pick 2: Giants -1.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Bovada and Lucky Rebel ask you to lay -2, but BetOnline has -1.5 at standard juice. In a game this low-scoring, that half point is worth taking. New York is 6-2 ATS, healthier, at home and catching Washington's offensive line at its weakest. Bad weather favors the better defense, and the Giants have it.

Pick 3: Malik Nabers Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
BetOnline hangs 69.5, so Bovada's 67.5 is the number to play. Nabers saw 20 targets in the first meeting and went for 121 yards against a secondary that still ranks near the bottom of the league. Bad weather tightens a quarterback's reads, and McCarthy will keep going to his top target. It's the one Over worth playing in a game we expect to stay under.

Best Bet

Our best bet is the BetOnline Under 41 (-110), because heavy rain, gusting wind, an elite Giants defense and Washington's banged-up offensive line all point to a low-scoring game.