Sunday Night Football: Cowboys vs. Giants Picks and Preview

Matchup Preview

The NFL kicks off its Sunday night slate with the most familiar opener in football: Dallas at the Giants in the NFC East. This time there's a twist — it's John Harbaugh's debut in New York and second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart's first real audition as the full-time starter. Dallas opens as a 3-point favorite, and that number tells the story of a talent gap the Giants have to punch above.

Dak Prescott owns this series, sitting 14-3 in his career against New York, and he's coming off a season in which he led the league in completions and threw 30 touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. The catch is up front: starting left guard Tyler Smith, arguably Dallas's best lineman, is out for roughly a month after hand surgery, with T.J. Bass sliding in. That matters because the Giants' one elite unit is their pass rush — Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and rookie Abdul Carter can make a patchwork interior line uncomfortable.

The Giants' hope hinges on two things. First, whether WR1 Malik Nabers (questionable, still working back from an ACL tear) actually suits up — he's averaged 117 receiving yards in three career games against Dallas and is the offense's only true difference-maker on the outside. Second, whether Dart can handle the moment against a division rival that has tormented this franchise. He closed 2025 by stunning Dallas 34-17, so the confidence is real, but so is the step up in stakes.

The under-the-radar theme here is defense — specifically, the lack of it. Dallas surrendered the most points in the NFL last season and the Giants graded out fourth-worst. Dallas retooled with Rashan Gary, Von Miller and rookie safety Caleb Downs, but that's a Week 1 group with no live reps together. Two shaky defenses plus Prescott's passing volume points one direction on the total.

Weather is a non-factor by kickoff. MetLife is outdoor and the region saw heavy rain and a morning flood watch, but by 8:20 PM ET expect partly cloudy skies, temps in the low 70s and wind around 6 mph — well below anything that changes how you bet. The only residue is a possibly damp field, worth a glance for footing but not a reason to fade the passing games.

The Picks

1. Cowboys -3 (-107 at BetOnline). BetOnline offers the cheapest juice on the favorite, a full nine cents better than Everygame's -116. Prescott's 14-3 mark against the Giants, the league's top passing attack, and a soft New York secondary outweigh the interior-line worry — especially with Dart making his first start under this spotlight against a division nemesis.

2. Over 47.5 (-115 at Bovada). This is a matchup of two of the league's worst defenses from a year ago, and Dallas alone averaged 27.7 points per game. Bovada holds the number at 47.5 — a half-point friendlier than BetOnline's 48 — so take the lower total. Prescott's volume and a Giants offense that can score in chunks when Dart scrambles give both sides paths to the number.

3. Cowboys moneyline (-159 at BetOnline). If you'd rather sidestep the hook, BetOnline's -159 is a clear value against VoltageBet's -172 — thirteen cents of edge on the exact same bet. Dallas is the more complete roster, has the quarterback advantage, and catches a Giants team that may be without its best receiver.

Best Bet

The strongest play is Cowboys -3 at BetOnline — the best price available on the side backed by Prescott's dominance in this series and a Giants offense still finding its footing under a first-time full-season starter.