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NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

Four underdogs won outright in Week 10, as Cleveland, San Francisco, Kansas City and the New York Jets rewarded bettors with solid wins. But it was all favorites in the nine other Week 10 matchups, with eight favorites recording convincing victories by double-digit margins. Week 11 features much tighter point spreads with only five teams favored by greater than five points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Game Line: Chicago -3 | OU 47

Following a pair of devastating losses to New England and Green Bay, in which they surrendered a combined 106 points, the Chicago Bears are officially in freefall. The 3-6 Bears have now lost their last three, SU and ATS, by an average margin of 27.3 points. Chicago has turned over the ball eight times during the streak while their pass defense has allowed 13 passing TDs.

The Vikings appear to have turned the corner after early season struggles on and off the field. The 4-5 Vikes have won their last two SU and last three ATS, while holding opposing passers to 255 or fewer yards in their last five outings. While Minny is winless SU in their last five visits to Soldier Field, the Bears look primed for yet another beating, SU and ATS.

Free Pick: Take Minnesota and the points. Minnesota 27-18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins

Game Line: Washington -7 | OU 45.5

The 1-8 Buccaneers are coming off yet another home loss, dropping a 27-17 decision to Atlanta as three-point home dogs, extending their SU and ATS losing streak at home to six. While the Bucs are 3-0 ATS in their last three on the road, they are a miserable 0-5 SU in their last five overall, and have scored just two first-half TDs and a total of three first-quarter points in their last four games.

The 3-6 Redskins have posted two SU wins in their last three and tallied their highest point total in their last six games last week in a narrow 29-26 loss to Minnesota, but failed to cover as one-point underdogs. While QB Robert Griffin III struggled at times in the early going against Minny, the Redskins star threw for over 140 yards and one TD in the second half, which is bad news for a Bucs squad that has allowed 280 or more passing yards in three of their last five

Free Pick: Take Washington and give the points. Washington 27-17

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns

Game Line: Cleveland -3 | OU 42.5

The Cleveland Browns did something last week that they haven’t done since 1994 – seize sole possession of first place in their division. The 6-3 Browns posted their third straight SU win last weekend, dominating the division rival Cincinnati Bengals 24-3 in prime time on Thursday night. Two of Cleveland’s three SU losses have been by three or fewer points while the Browns have held opponents to fewer than 11 points per game in their last four SU wins.

QB Bryan Hoyer has also proven to be a revelation for Cleveland, providing veteran leadership at the helm, throwing for a solid 2,212 yards and 10 TDs against just four picks. The 4-5 Texans meanwhile, have struggled following a promising start, with just one SU win in their last five, 2-3 ATS, giving up 30+ points in three of those losses.

Free Pick: Take Cleveland and give the points. Cleveland 27-20

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Game Line: Carolina -1.5 | OU 46

Second place in the underachieving NFC South is on the line when the 3-6-1 Panthers play host to the 3-6 Falcons. The Panthers are in a downward spiral since their improbable 37-37 tie with Cincinnati in Week 6. Carolina is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their four games since, averaged just 14.25 points per game, and have scored a total of just one first-half TD in their six SU losses.

For the Falcons, who ended a five-game SU losing skid with a solid 27-17 win over Tampa Bay last weekend, the game plan is simple – score first. While the Falcons have also struggled at times to produce offense, when they win, they win big, averaging 40 points per game in their three victories. The Falcons are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six visits to Carolina, but given the Panthers’ current woes on both sides of the ball, Atlanta will enjoy a prime opportunity to get back into the playoff race in the NFL’s weakest division.

Free Pick: Take Atlanta and the points. Atlanta 29-16

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Game Line: Arizona -2 | OU 41

The 8-1 Arizona Cardinals own the best record in the NFL and a two-game lead over Seattle atop the NFC West, but will have their hands full against the 7-2 Lions, who are 6-1 SU in their last seven. The Cards have been dominant this season, winning their last five SU and ATS, including four wins by double-digit margins. Arizona has also been strong at home, 9-1 SU in their last 10.

The only question mark facing the Cards is how they will fare without QB Carson Palmer, lost for the season to a knee injury. Drew Stanton, who started in a pair of wins early in the season, will step in for Palmer. The Lions have built their record on thrilling fourth-quarter rallies, with their last three wins coming as a result of scores on late drives. While Detroit has proven to be a legitimate playoff contender this season, they will be unlikely to get the chance to rally late if they fall behind against the red-hot Cards.

Free Pick: Take Arizona and give the points. Arizona 26-21

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans

Game Line: Pittsburgh -5.5 | OU 48

After a pair of lopsided wins in which the Steelers scored a combined 94 points and QB Ben Roethlisberger threw a total of 12 TD passes, Pittsburgh was expected to romp to victory over the New York Jets last week. Instead, the Steelers turned over the ball four times in the first half, equalling the total number of turnovers they had on the season going into the game, and gave the Jets just their second win of the season, 20-13.

Not surprisingly, it will be an angry Steelers team traveling to Tennessee to take on the 2-7 Titans in a Monday Night Football matchup. The hard luck Titans are riding a three-game losing streak in which they have averaged just 13.3 points per game, and have posted just one victory at home this season, a sloppy 16-14 decision over Jacksonville. Tennessee has just one ATS win in their last eight and that trend is not likely to be reversed against the Steelers.

Free Pick: Take Pittsburgh and give the points. Philadelphia 31-10