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NFL Betting Lines: Conference Championships Props Roundup

The NFL playoffs props parade rolls through the conference championship games this weekend, as the sportsbooks are offering their usual fare of statistical props looking at passing, rushing and receiving yards.

Let’s start with the passing yards props where to no one’s surprise Tom Brady is a huge favorite to post the most yards this weekend at -140. Among the remaining four starting quarterbacks Brady was the only one to pass for more than 4,000 yards this season with 4,577 and he had the highest per-game average with 286.1 yards. He also had the most yards last week in the divisional round with 337 yards against the Tennessee Titans.

Brady looks like a near-lock on this prop versus Case Keenum, Blake Bortles and Nick Foles, but there is one thing that could derail him – injury. It was reported that Brady jammed his throwing hand in practice earlier this week. New England is writing it off as nothing, which they do for all injuries, but if it does become an issue this weekend it could mean some solid profits on the passing yards prop.

If Brady does falter who’s the best pick? The options are Keenum at +250, Bortles at +400 and Foles at +700. During the regular season Keenum was the best, averaging 236.5 yards per game, and he had 318 yards last week against the New Orleans Saints. If not Brady go with Keenum this weekend.

Moving on to rush yards, where Leonard Fournette is favored at +150 followed by Dion Lewis at +200 and Jay Ajayi at +300. Fournette looks like a shoo-in here, as he was the only back to top 1,000 yards this season with 1,040 while averaging 80 yards per game, and he was the only back to rush for more than 100 yards last week.

Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are the underdogs at +425 and +1000 respectively and should probably be avoided this week. Not only does sharing the carries limit their chances to put up big numbers but they’re also facing an Eagles defense that ranked first in the league against the run this season.

On the receiving yards prop there are co-favorites with Adam Thielen and Rob Gronkowski both listed at +500. Rounding out the Top 5 are Stefon Diggs at +600, Brandin Cooks at +650 and Alshon Jeffrey at +800.

Last week Diggs led all receivers with 137 yards, thanks in part to his 61-yard touchdown grab that got Minnesota into the conference championship. Thielen had only 74 yards last week, but he had the most yards during the regular season with 1,276 and had the highest per-game average at 79.8 yards.

Digging a little deeper into last week’s stats, the only other player on this week’s list to post more than 100 receiving yards was Danny Amendola with 112.

With Gronkowski and Cooks ahead of him in the pecking order the chances of Amendola repeating or bettering those numbers this week look slim, especially when you consider he had more yards last week than in his previous three games combined. Don’t be fooled into taking a flier on Amendola at +1000 on what will likely be a losing bet.