NFL Week 5 Betting Picks

Underdogs continued to confound NFL bettors in Week 4, covering in seven and posting outright wins in six of the week’s 13 matchups. Following their meeting in London, Miami and Oakland enjoy a bye in Week 5 while Arizona and Cincinnati return to action as the NFL’s only undefeated teams. Here’s a look at a few key matchups for this week.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

Game Line: Indianapolis -3.5 | OU 48

Following a rough start, losing SU to Denver and Philadelphia in games they may have won with more disciplined play, the 2-2 Colts unleashed their fury on lowly Jacksonville and Tennessee, scoring a combined 85 points as QB Andrew Luck threw for 763 yards and eight TDs to lead Indy to decisive wins, SU and ATS.

The Ravens have won three straight, SU and ATS, after an opening week loss, holding opponents to just over 12 points per game in the victories. While it is unlikely that the Ravens will allow 40+ points on Sunday, and could make the UNDER an attractive play, they face a Colts squad that is clearly in high gear. Indy have also enjoyed recent success against Baltimore, winning SU in eight of their last 10 head-to-head, including their last five meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Free Pick: Take Indianapolis and give the points. Indianapolis 27-18

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots

Game Line: Cincinnati -1 | OU 46

The 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals, coming off a bye in Week 4, travel to New England as one of just two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. Cincy looked solid in the early going, covering in each of their wins while twice holding opponents to under 100 yards rushing. But while the Bengals have been a dominant home team, undefeated in regular season action at Paul Brown Stadium since 2012, they have been average on the road and are winless SU in their last five visits to Gillette Stadium.

Fortunately for Cincy, the 2-2 Patriots are off to a miserable start, 1-3 ATS. Future HOF quarterback Tom Brady has looked very ordinary, punctuated by a poor performance in the Pats’ 41-14 loss in Kansas City on Monday night, throwing one TD against two picks, and compiling under 160 yards in the air for the second time this season. Like Cincy, the Pats have been outstanding at home, 10-0 SU in their last 10, but must quickly find an answer to stop a Bengals squad that has scored most of their points on the ground while allowing just 33 points against this season.

Free Pick: Take Cincinnati and give the points. Cincinnati 29-21

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos

Game Line: Denver -7 | OU 48.5

Following a bye in Week 4, the 3-0 Cardinals and 2-1 Broncos meet on Sunday afternoon at Mile High. Arizona has looked good in the early going, playing responsible defense, holding opponents to just 15 points per game. But while the Cards have been solid on the road, 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS, in their last five, their wins have come largely against weaker opponents with the notable exception of their 17-10 win over Seattle in Week 16 of last season.

The Cards face a Broncos squad that has been less than dominant, failing to cover in their last four outings. The Broncos’ struggles moving the ball on the ground could also be a concern against a Cardinals defense that ranks fourth in the league against the rush, holding opponents to just 71.7 ground yards per game. With neither team lighting up the scoreboard so far this season, the UNDER deserves a long look.

Free Pick: Take Arizona and the points. Denver 23-20

St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Game Line: Philadelphia -7 | OU 47.5

The 3-1 Eagles return home after losing in forgettable fashion, 26-21 to San Francisco on Sunday night. Philly looked sloppy against the Niners, failing to take a snap beyond their own 43 until late in the fourth while going pointless in the second half for the first time this season.

Philly face a 1-2 Rams squad that has shown some signs of life under QB Austin Davis, who threw for three TDs and 327 yards two weeks ago against Dallas. But that game featured the Cowboys’ all-time biggest comeback and a 34-31 Rams loss, yet another demonstration of St. Louis’ inability to play a full 60 minutes. With just three wins SU in their last 11 against Philly, and a 3-6 record, SU and ATS, in their last nine on the road, the Rams may be just what the Eagles need to get back on the winning track.

Free Pick: Take Philadelphia and give the points. Philadelphia 31-13

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Game Line: Dallas -7 | OU 46.5

The 3-1 Dallas Cowboys are one of the early surprises of the 2014 season. Led by enigmatic QB Tony Romo and RB Demarco Murray, the NFL’s leading rusher, the Cowboys have found ways to win. The club staged the franchise’s all-time biggest comeback in a 34-31 win over St. Louis, before finally getting the better of archrival QB Drew Brees in a convincing 38-17 win over the struggling New Orleans Saints last week.

However, they face a rejuvenated Texans squad that is 3-1 SU on the season and 4-1 ATS in their last five. Houston have also been strong against the rush, allowing just two rushing TDs to date this season. But with the Texans still rebounding from their 14-game losing streak last season and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing five picks against two TDs in their last two games, it remains to be seen whether these winning Texans are for real.

Free Pick: Take Houston and the points. Dallas 21-17

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Game Line: San Francisco -6.5 | OU 44.5

The 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs will look to build on their stunning 41-14 upset victory over New England on Monday night when they face the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. It was the second straight win for the Chiefs, third ATS, following SU losses to Tennessee and Denver to start the campaign. The Chiefs have been a reliable bet as underdogs, covering in their last four, and are a solid 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, in their last six against the 2-2 Niners.

San Francisco have struggled out of the gate, winning ugly against the Eagles on Sunday, and failing to cover in their last three. QB Colin Kaepernick has been far from dominant, throwing for just 218 yards, two TDs and one interception in the win over Philly; by far his weakest performance of the season. However, the 49ers defense has been solid, holding opponents to less than 70 rushing yards per game while forcing nine turnovers, which will pose a real challenge for the Chiefs’ fourth-ranked running game.

Free Pick: Take Kansas City and the points. San Francisco 24-23