NFL Week 16 Betting Previews and Picks

NFL Week 14 Betting PicksThe playoff picture is now coming into focus with only two weeks left in the season. After Week 15, the AFC is still likely to put the Denver Broncos (probably first) and the New England Patriots (probably second) as the top two seeds. The Broncos lost last Thursday, giving New England a chance to take the top spot, but the Patriots faltered. New England’s loss gave the Cincinnati Bengals a chance to take the lead in the race for the number two seed and a first-round bye, but the Bengals were terrible in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The team in the AFC that helped itself was the Miami Dolphins. By beating New England, Miami put itself in a position where it will make the playoffs if it can win out. The Dolphins will either overtake Baltimore or – if Baltimore goes 10-6 (by beating Cincinnati on the final day of the season and winning next week) – they will displace Cincinnati in a head-to-head tiebreaker due to a win over the Bengals on Halloween night.

 

Indianapolis is still in line to get the fourth seed but the Colts could move up to third if Cincinnati stumbles. The Kansas City Chiefs are still fifth but with Denver’s loss, the Chiefs could be in position to get the top seed in the AFC if Denver messes up one more time in the final two weeks of the season. Baltimore is now in trouble since Miami gained a win over New England in what was felt to be a coin-flip game. The Ravens, realistically, will need Miami to lose one of its last two games in order to make the playoffs.

In the NFC, Seattle still holds the top spot and after New Orleans lost handily at St. Louis this past Sunday, the Saints are now in a position where they must beat Carolina this upcoming weekend in order to win the NFC South and get the number two seed in the NFC. New Orleans-Carolina is almost certain to be a winner-take-all game for both the division title and the other bye in the NFC.

The NFC North and NFC East will compete for the third and fourth seeds. Philadelphia lost at Minnesota this past Sunday while Dallas blew a 26-3 halftime lead against a Green Bay team that was without Aaron Rodgers. Chicago came back to win at Cleveland, improving its odds of outlasting Detroit for the NFC North crown. The huge game of Week 16 for both the NFC East and the NFC North is the Sunday Night Football game between Chicago and Philadelphia. The fifth seed will very likely go to San Francisco, which continues to win at a steady rate. The sixth seed will probably go to the loser of the New Orleans-Carolina game.

Here’s the inside scoop on Week 16 of the NFL season.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

Game Line: Ravens -1, 44.5 O/U

The Patriots took a big step back last weekend by losing to the Miami Dolphins but because of losses by the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals, NFL online betting cappers know they’re still in line for a first-round bye in the AFC if they can win out. However, the loss to Miami means that New England can’t afford to slip up. One more loss would give Cincinnati and Indianapolis a chance to climb past New England for the second seed in the AFC. New England is shorthanded without tight end Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots have also sustained injuries along their offensive line. Baltimore is also in a must-win position as their playoff hopes are on the line. They are 5-1 at home this season while New England is merely 3-4 on the road. That’s likely to be the slight difference.

Free Pick: Take the Ravens. Ravens 31-27.Free Pick: Take the Ravens. Ravens 31-27.

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game Line: Chiefs -7, 43.5 O/U

This game is an opportunity for both teams to move upward in the playoff order. Indianapolis has a better chance of moving up, since it is competing with two teams (New England and Cincinnati), not just one. However, Kansas City has the bigger prize at stake. The Chiefs, if they win out and get a Denver loss (or tie), would earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver still controls that race but if Kansas City keeps winning, Denver will have to win each of its last two games to hold off the Chiefs. Take Kansas City here with your NFL betting picks. They are at home and have regained their swagger with back-to-back wins by a combined score of 101-41. Indianapolis has not been the same team since wide receiver Reggie Wayne was knocked out with an injury against Denver in the middle of the season.

Free Pick: Take the Chiefs and the over. Chiefs 33-20.Free Pick: Take the Chiefs and the over. Chiefs 33-20.

 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Game Line: Panthers -3, 46.5 O/U

Those who bet on the NFL can expect the winner of this game to almost certainly win the NFC South and get the NFC’s other first-round bye (along with the Seattle Seahawks, who are one win away from accomplishing that goal). New Orleans had the ability to treat this as an optional game but that power was lost when the Saints fell to the St. Louis Rams. Now, New Orleans must win this game. Given the way the Saints have played on the road in recent weeks, Carolina should definitely be considered the clear NFL football betting favorite. The Saints last four road games have looked like this: 30-27 loss in New England, 26-20 loss in New York (Jets), 17-13 win in Atlanta, 34-7 loss in Seattle and 27-16 loss in St. Louis.

Free Pick: Take the Panthers and the under. Panthers 23-17.Free Pick: Take the Panthers and the under. Panthers 23-17.

 

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles

Game Line: Eagles -3, 56 O/U

In the NFC, Chicago will probably need this win more than Philadelphia because even if Dallas beats Washington, Philadelphia will know that it has to beat the Cowboys in Week 17 in order to make the playoffs, rendering this game fairly (though not completely) meaningless. The most basic of NFL betting tips will suggest that you watch the afternoon game before making your Sunday night decision as it will affect the motivation of the Eagles. So to reiterate, if Dallas wins, Philadelphia has nothing on the line in this game. If Dallas loses, Philadelphia can clinch their playoff spot with a win.

Just basing it on logic, how Washington has played recently and the fact that Dallas is favored on the NFL betting odds, we’ll assume they get the win. For that reason, we’ll pick the Bears. If you’re betting on the NFL and this game in particular, wait until the Washington-Dallas game is done to make your decision.

Free Pick: Take the Bears and the over. Bears 34-30.Free Pick: Take the Bears and the over. Bears 34-30.

Home Dog with the Best Chance to Win is… The Washington Redskins

And after explaining all of the scenarios above, don’t be surprised if the Redskins pull off the feat. They were competitive last week with Kirk Cousins under center while the Cowboys are reeling after blowing a 23-point halftime lead to Green Bay at home this past Sunday. Washington could very realistically pull off the upset.

Home Dog of the Week: Washington Redskins

Most Important Injury of the Week is…

Larry Fitzgerald. The Arizona Cardinals’ receiver was concussed this past Sunday in an overtime win over Tennessee. If he can’t play against Seattle, it’s really hard to see how the Cardinals can beat the Seahawks on the road.

7-Point Teaser of the Week: Dolphins +4 & Chiefs Pick ‘em

We’re going to tease down a couple of favored teams that are in need of wins. First, we’ll move the Dolphins from a 3-point favorite to 4-point underdog. Buffalo has been hapless, so hopefully Miami – at the very least – plays them close if not wins.

For our second game, we’ll knock the Chiefs down to a PICK. The Chiefs are 11-1 against anyone not named Denver while the Colts have really struggled against quality opponents since Reggie Wayne was lost for the year.

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