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NFL Week 13 Betting Previews and Picks

The playoff picture is always taking a twist here or there. After Week 12, the AFC is quite likely to put the New England Patriots and the AFC West champion (Denver or Kansas City) as the top two seeds, which leaves Indianapolis and Cincinnati fighting for the third and fourth seeds at this point. The AFC West runner-up will clearly be the fifth seed and then a huge group of teams are fighting for that sixth and final playoff spot. The San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are all 5-6. They are going to need each and every victory over the final five weeks of the season in order to reach the playoffs. Getting an 8-8 record might be enough at this point, but the team that can go 9-7 is the team that will put itself in the best position to play a meaningful game in January.

In the NFC, Seattle and New Orleans hold the top two seeds, and the only question at this point is whether Seattle (in the NFC West) or the NFC South winner (New Orleans or Carolina) will get the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The other team will get the second seed and lock up a first-round bye. The NFC North and NFC East winners will compete for the third and fourth seeds. The fifth seed race is now led by the 8-3 Carolina Panthers, though they could move up to the second spot and displace New Orleans over the remainder of the season. Lastly, the 7-4 San Francisco 49ers’ hold the sixth spot.

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Got it? Good. Now let’s focus on Week 13 of the NFL season:

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers

Game Line: Chargers -1.5, 48 O/U

Those who bet on the NFL know that the Bengals lead the AFC North but they have not been very strong on the road this season. They are coming off a bye week but on the other hand, they are flying across the country. Yet, for everything that you might believe about the Bengals – for better or worse – this game might be more about the version of the San Diego Chargers that shows up. San Diego had been losing close games all season long but the Bolts shocked the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 12. They have to feel very confident entering this game. We’ve already seen a shift in the NFL betting odds in this game as the Bengals opened as a 1-point favorite on the NFL lines but are now a 1.5-point dog. Expect another strong showing from the Chargers.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game Line: Broncos -3.5, 48

This game is covered in intrigue after both the Broncos and Chiefs suffered multiple injuries to important defensive players this past Sunday. Ultimately, though, Denver watched running back Knowshon Moreno get hurt late in its loss to New England. If Moreno can’t go, the Broncos become dangerously limited at running back. However, the Chiefs lost their two leading passrushers to injury as Tamba Hali and Justin Houston couldn’t finish last week. The Chiefs have generated just one sack in the last three weeks and if they can’t pressure Peyton Manning, they aren’t covering on the NFL online betting odds or winning.

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

Game Line: Seahawks -5.5, 47 O/U

The Seahawks are at home, where they haven’t lost since the 2011 season but they are startling thin at cornerback. Starter Brandon Browner is injured and on top of that, suspended for the year. That would normally move slot-man Walter Thurmond into a starting role but he’s also suspended (four games) for allegedly violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. Losing defensive backs when Drew Brees is coming to town is always dangerous. However, Seattle is still at home and coming off a bye week. They’ll preserve their top spot in the NFC with a close win.

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles

Game Line: Eagles -3.5, 48.5 O/U

These are two surprise teams in the NFC – especially the Cardinals, who stand at 7-4 after blasting the Indianapolis Colts last week. The Cardinals’ defense will challenge the Eagles’ offensive line but the fact that Philadelphia is coming off a bye week – giving the team a chance to heal – should revitalize the Eagles’ offense enough to give coach Chip Kelly’s team a big win. Lay the points with the Eagles on the NFL point spread as they’ll find a way to end the Cards four-game winning streak.

Home Dog with the Best Chance to Win is… The Minnesota Vikings

It’s slim pickings this week as the only real home underdogs (according to the latest NFL odds) are the Houston Texans, who are a home dog to the New England Patriots, and the Chiefs, who are home underdogs to the Broncos. Neither team really has a good shot to win.

There are a couple of games hovering around the “PICK” range, so we’ll give out the Minnesota Vikings, who are at home against the Chicago Bears this week. The Bears were throttled on the road in St. Louis last week and can’t seem to stop anyone on defense. They have allowed 29.6 points per game over their last five. Adrian Peterson should be able to post one of his best games of the year, which should lead to a Vikings win.

Home Dog of the Week: Vikings

Most Important Injury of the Week is…

Geno Atkins. The Cincinnati Bengals’ best pass rusher is precisely the kind of player which would have enabled the AFC North leaders to bull-rush San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers. Without Atkins, though, Cincinnati’s defense might not be ready or equipped to handle the Chargers’ passing attack this Sunday afternoon in Southern California.

Thanksgiving Thursday Teaser: Detroit PICK, Cowboys -3 & Steelers +10

You didn’t think we’d pass over the Thanksgiving games without giving you some NFL betting tips, did you? This week, we’ll do a three-team Thanksgiving teaser. Hopefully we cash in while our stomachs fill up on all of the tasty turkey.

We’ll start with Detroit by knocking them down to a PICK. They just lost at home to Tampa Bay and have now lost two straight, but I can’t see them losing to the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers.

Secondly, we’ll also knock the Cowboys down a touchdown and lay just a field goal with them against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are scrappy but the Cowboys need this one to maintain position in the NFC East.

Lastly, I’ll tease the Steelers up to 10 points as they visit the Baltimore Ravens. Both of these teams are flawed and both have been disappointments, but Pittsburgh has won three straight and five of seven. They’ll put up a fight in Baltimore and should cover 10 points.