NFL Week 12 Betting Picks

It was a huge weekend for underdogs in Week 11, covering in eight of 13 matchups with six claiming outright victories. With the regular season quickly turning towards the home stretch and playoff races taking shape, spreads are starting to widen in matchups between contenders and teams playing for pride. In Week 12, eight of the 15 games feature teams favored by six or more points. Here is a sneak peek at a few key matchups.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Game Line: Atlanta -3 | OU 47

After reaching the midway point of the NFL regular season with just two wins, it appeared that the Atlanta Falcons had fallen out of contention. But following a pair of SU wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, combined with two straight home losses by the New Orleans Saints, the 4-6 Falcons suddenly find themselves tied with the Saints atop the NFC South with four home games remaining.

The 6-4 Browns are coming off a disappointing upset loss to Houston but have won five of seven SU and surrendered just 15 points per game in their last six. Cleveland also owns a solid pass defense that has held opponents to just 180.7 passing yards per game in their last three. That is bad news for the Falcons who rely heavily on the arm of QB Matt Ryan, who has thrown at least one TD in each of Atlanta’s 10 games this season. The point total has finished UNDER in both teams’ last six, a trend likely to continue this weekend.

Free Pick: Take Cleveland and the points. Cleveland 22-18

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots

Game Line: New England -6.5 | OU 48

The New England Patriots put on another dominating performance last week, routing the Indianapolis Colts 42-20. The matchup with Indy was expected to be an arms race between Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. Instead, it was a coming-out party for rusher Jonas Gray, who gained 201 yards and four TDs, revealing the Pats’ newfound ability to destroy opponents both in the air and on the ground. The 8-2 Patriots have now scored 136 points and tallied 1386 total yards in their last three, which also include decisive wins over Denver and Chicago.

The Detroit Lions have emerged as this season’s Cardiac Kids, relying on last minute heroics in each of their last three wins. But the 7-3 Lions had their recent four-game SU win streak halted last week in Arizona, shut down by the Cardinals 14-6 while amassing just 262 total yards of offense. Detroit has also posted just two ATS wins in their last six. While the Lions are among the NFL’s best defensive teams, they were unable to contain the Cards and will be overwhelmed by the Patriots’ new-look dual-threat offense.

Free Pick: Take New England and give the points. New England 31-14

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Game Line: Seattle -6.5 | OU 42

After winning their sixth straight, SU and ATS, shutting down the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions 13-6 last weekend, the Arizona Cardinals are yet again pegged as underdogs, this time against the struggling Seattle Seahawks. It is the third time in four weeks that the Cards, 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS on the season, have failed to get the respect of oddsmakers and the public after facing both the Lions and Cowboys as underdogs.

While the Cards do not score a ton of points, they own one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, and have surrendered just 14 points per game in their last five. The 6-4 Seahawks, meanwhile, have just one ATS win in their last six, and have not topped an opponent with a winning record since early season victories over Green Bay and Denver. This week, the Cardinals will finally gain some of the respect they have already earned.

Free Pick: Take Arizona and the points. Arizona 24-21

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Game Line: Buffalo -4.5 | OU 39.5

The New York Jets travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a battle of struggling AFC East rivals. The Jets halted an eight-loss freefall last week with a surprising 20-13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by newly anointed QB Michael Vick, who appears to have brought some calm to an offense that has struggled mercilessly at times this season. However, the 2-8 Jets have been brutal on the road, just 1-8 SU and 2-5-2 ATS dating back to their 37-14 loss in Buffalo in Week 11 last season.

The Bills are enduring struggles of their own, losers of their last two, SU and ATS, tallying just 22 combined points while failing to score a TD in the last seven quarters. The Bills have just two ATS wins in their last eight, but easily covered as three-point road dogs in a 43-23 beating of the Jets in Week 8. That win was the first in which the Bills scored more than 22 points since a Week 2 win over Miami, which bodes well for a Buffalo squad in desperate need of an offensive spark.

Free Pick: Take New York and the points. Buffalo 19-16

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Game Line: Dallas -3 | OU 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys return to action after a bye last weekend to take on the division rival New York Giants. The week off could not have come at a better time for Cowboys QB Tony Romo, as he recovers from yet another injury to his fragile back. A healthy Romo is key to the 7-3 Cowboys’ playoff hopes. Dallas dropped a pair while Romo was sidelined but had no problem disposing of Jacksonville 31-17 two weeks ago, with a still-injured Romo at the helm.

The other pillar on which the Cowboys’ playoff hopes are built is RB DeMarco Murray, who leads the NFL with 1233 rushing yards. The Giants have lost five straight, outscored by a combined 152-72 during that stretch, to tumble out of playoff contention. To further compound the Giants’ downward spiral, QB Eli Manning threw an astonishing five picks in New York’s 16-10 loss last week to San Francisco. Manning has now thrown six picks in the last two weeks and things will get no easier against a Dallas pass defense that has surrendered just 14 passing TDs while making 10 interceptions this season.

Free Pick: Take Dallas and give the points. Dallas 31-17

Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints

Game Line: New Orleans -3 | OU 47.5

The Baltimore Ravens take on the New Orleans Saints in a Monday Night Football showdown between two teams in must-win situations. The 4-6 Saints have lost two straight at home ending a regular season winning streak at the Superdome that dates back to last season. The Saints lost to another desperate team last weekend, dominated 27-10 by the Cincinnati Bengals as Drew Brees posted his worst home performance of the season, throwing for just 255 yards and one TD.

After a brief stay atop the AFC North, the 6-4 Ravens quickly tumbled to the division basement before returning to the thick of the Wild Card race with a solid 21-7 win over Tennessee last weekend. The Ravens’ pass defense has been outstanding at times, twice holding opposing passers to under 200 yards in the last five. However, Baltimore has given up a combined 70 points in their last two road games, losses to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Free Pick: Take New Orleans and give the points. New Orleans 30-24