Cowboys RB Elliott Favored In NFL Top Offensive Rookie Futures

The Dallas Cowboys went against the grain – which is sort of their thing – by drafting running back Ezekiel Elliott fourth overall in the NFL draft, which has led to the Ohio State Buckeyes product rising to the top of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year futures board.

Under owner Jerry Jones, the Cowboys like to showcase their new toys. It’s in vogue in the NFL for teams to rotate running backs based on situations and the nature of opponents, but the Cowboys appear to be scheming ways to give Elliott 18-20 touches per game this season. The Cowboys’ offensive line is two seasons removed from opening holes for DeMarco Murray to win a rushing title, and QB Tony Romo, when healthy, dissuades defensive coordinators from stacking the box to stop the run.

As such, Elliott is listed at +200, or 2/1, to win top offensive rookie honors. The award has gone to running backs in two of the previous three seasons.

The Los Angeles Rams’ first overall pick, QB Jared Goff, is listed at +250, or 5/2. Goff will have 2015 rookie of the year Todd Gurley to hand off to in Los Angeles’ offense. The Philadelphia Eagles’ second overall pick, QB Carson Wentz from North Dakota State, is not on the board. Five of the last 10 top offensive rookies have been quarterbacks who were among the top three picks, although it’s not a predictor of long-term success judging by the subsequent careers of Vince Young (2006), Sam Bradford (2008) and Robert Griffin III (2012).

No running back has won the Heisman Trophy and NFL offensive rookie of the year in succession in 20 years. Tennessee Titans newcomer Derrick Henry, who won the Heisman last season at Alabama, is listed at +700, or 7/1. The Titans were one of the NFL’s worst run-blocking teams last season.

Wide receivers usually face the steepest learning curve from college to the NFL. Only two of the last 10 outstanding offensive rookies, and four of the last 20, have been receivers. The Cleveland Browns’ Corey Coleman is listed at +750. Coleman is a deep threat who could be working with fellow Baylor Bears alumnus Griffin III in Cleveland.

The second and third receivers drafted, the Washington Redskins’ Josh Doctson and Minnesota Vikings’ Laquon Treadwell, are each listed at +1200. Each is penciled in as a No. 2 wideout on a reigning division champion, although the circumstances differ. Doctson, who played for the Texas Christian Horned Frogs, will be joining a pass-first Washington offense that grants receivers many opportunities to go deep. Treadwell is not as much of a burner, but the Vikings drafted him to fit into a passing game built around precise routes and Pro Bowl QB Teddy Bridgewater’s fitting passes into tight windows.