2016 NFL Draft Props: Elliott, Henry Featured on Betting Lines

Conventional NFL draft wisdom holds that running backs can always be acquired later, but Ezekiel Elliott is such a talent that some team will break that unwritten rule in the first round.

There are a number of intriguing betting props revolving around the draft, which begins Thursday. Two of the more fascinating ones are predicated on when the top two rushing threats, the Ohio State Buckeyes’ Elliott and Alabama Crimson Tide’s Heisman Trophy-winning Derrick Henry, are selected.

The over/under on Elliott’s draft position is 8.5, with under being a -150 favorite and over as a +110 underdog. The Dallas Cowboys, who currently hold the No. 4 overall choice, are high on Elliott, but that is a very high pick to spend on a running back, the position with the shortest career span in the NFL. The New York Giants and Chicago Bears, who have the Nos. 10 and 11 picks, might also maneuver to add Elliott to their offenses.

Henry’s draft stock has been sliding, which is why his over/under is 36.5, with a -120 moneyline on either prop. Henry had almost 400 touches last season for Alabama, which might spark concerns about the mileage he’s already accumulated. Two of Henry’s predecessors from ‘Bama, Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, have also been less than big-time NFL rushers.

Other player over/under props worth studying is the 5.0 on Ohio State DE Joey Bosa and the 21.5 on the draft slot of Memphis Tigers QB Paxton Lynch. Bosa is -140 to go before the fifth pick and even money to be drafted later; he’s a productive pass rusher who dominated while at Ohio State, but isn’t as beastly as J.J. Watt.

The odds on the 6-foot-7 Lynch are both -120. Not since 2012 have three quarterbacks been in the first 20 picks, but teams such as the Cleveland Browns (No. 8 pick), New Orleans Saints (No. 12) and New York Jets (No. 20) have each been linked to Lynch.

The over/under on quarterbacks taken in the first round is 2.5. In the last 10 years, an average of 2.6 quarterbacks have gone in Round 1, but years where there were three or four have included busts such as Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel.

Since the NFL caps rookie salaries and defensive players adapt to the league quicker than their offensive counterparts, it is -140 that more than 17.5 defensive players will go in the first round. Under 17.5 is even money. Conversely, it is -150 that fewer than 13.5 offensive players will be among the 31 first-round picks, with +110 on more than 13.5.